2025 Fantasy Baseball Projections V1 – Powered by PLV

It's never too early to start thinking about next season! Even if we don't have a 2024 World Series champion, we do Do Stay tuned for our first version of Fantasy Baseball Projections for 2025, powered by Pitcher Lists PLV.

These projections take into account past performance (with more weight given to current results) and underlying metrics (particularly our PLV metrics collection for hitters and pitchers). Each forecast metric combines past results and underlying components with unique weights and regression amounts to best estimate next season's performance. This has three main effects:

• Each metric has a different impact window for forecasting. Example: The batter's stolen base attempt rate depends heavily on last year's results, while the pitcher's GB% uses a more even weighting over the last three seasons.
• Each metric has a different position along the randomness/skill spectrum when projected. Example: Pitcher HR/FB% is quite loud and shows a strong regression towards league average for subsequent seasons, while K% is a better indicator of a player's talent and only declines slightly.
• Each forecast metric has a different balance between the results used and the underlying metrics. Example: Pitcher BB% results have a higher weighting in the forecast, while the underlying metrics account for a larger share of the forecast K%.

In version 1 of the projections, playing time is standardized: hitters received 600 PA, while starters received 160 IP and relievers received 60 IP (starter/reliever distinctions are based on the estimated proportion of games played that were starters). This version also only includes players with some MLB playing time last season (5+ IP for pitchers, 100+ PA for hitters). These restrictions will be alleviated/removed in future versions and MiLB/international players will also be included in future versions.

You can access all of our 2025 fantasy baseball tools and predictions (including future updates!) in the PL Pro Tools menu at the top of the page.

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