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What is the “blue wall”? Current election polls from three important states

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What is the “blue wall”? Current election polls from three important states

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Amidst the talk of “Bellwether Counties” and “swing states,” you may also hear about the “blue wall.”

Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump spent significant time and resources in the blue wall states during their campaigns. The states were Democratic strongholds for decades until Trump flipped three of them in 2016, but President Joe Biden turned them blue again in 2020.

The blue wall refers to the collection of states that voted reliably Democratic in the most recent presidential elections through 2012. The discussion about the so-called blue wall arose after the 2016 election, when Trump won three such states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Together, the states will have 44 key votes in the 2024 election.

Here the candidates in the important blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are one week before election day, November 5th.

Live updates on the 2024 election: Trump holds PA rally, Harris gives DC speech; Latest polls

Pennsylvania – 19 electoral votes

Here are some recent polls in Pennsylvania, along with when they were conducted, sample size, and margin of error:

  • Emerson: Trump 49%, Harris 48% (Oct. 21-22; 860 likely voters; margin of error ±3.3 percentage points)
  • Bloomberg: Trump 48.2%, Harris 50% (Oct. 16-20; 812 likely voters; ±3 percentage points.)

Before Trump, no Republican had won Pennsylvania since 1988.

  • 2016 presidential election results: Trump beat Clinton 48.6% to 47.9%
  • 2020 presidential election results: Biden beat Trump 50% to 48.8%

Michigan – 15 electoral votes

Here are some recent polls in Michigan, along with when they were conducted, sample size, and margin of error:

  • Emerson: Trump 49%, Harris 48% (October 25-27, 1,000 likely voters, margin of error ±3 percentage points).
  • Bloomberg: Trump 46.5%, Harris 49.6% (Oct. 16-20; 705 likely voters; margin of error ±4 percentage points.)
  • Quinnipiac: Trump 46%, Harris 49% (Oct. 17-21; 1,136 likely voters; margin of error ± 2.9 percentage points)

Before Trump, no Republican had won Michigan since 1988.

  • 2016 presidential election results: Trump beat Clinton 47.6% to 47.4%
  • 2020 presidential election results: Biden beat Trump 50.6% to 47.8%

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Wisconsin – 10 electoral votes

Here are some recent polls in Wisconsin, along with when they were conducted, sample size, and margin of error:

  • USA TODAY/Suffolk University: Trump 48%, Harris 47% (Oct. 20-23, 500 likely voters, margin of error ±4.4 percentage points).
  • Emerson: Trump 49%, Harris 48% (Oct. 21-22; 800 likely voters; margin of error ±3.4 percentage points)
  • Quinnipiac: Trump 48%, Harris 48% (Oct. 17-21; 1,108 likely voters; margin of error ± 2.9 percentage points)

Before Trump, no Republican had won Michigan since 1984.

  • 2016 presidential election results: Trump beat Clinton 47.8% to 47%
  • 2020 presidential election results: Biden beat Trump 49.6% to 48.9%

Kinsey Crowley is a featured news reporter at USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected] and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.

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