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5 factors fueling the Detroit Tigers' unlikely run to an MLB playoff spot

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5 factors fueling the Detroit Tigers' unlikely run to an MLB playoff spot

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The Detroit Tigers have been on a magical run over the past month and are now in the midst of the race for their first MLB playoff appearance in 10 years.

The Tigers have a 28-11 record since Aug. 11, the best record in baseball during that span, and have gone from eight games under .500 to nine games over at 83-74, with a 1½-game lead over the final AL wild-card spot after Tuesday's win. Now Detroit has five games left in its home stretch against the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox and has a good chance of earning a spot in the MLB playoffs for the first time since 2014.

But how exactly did the Tigers go from the bottom half of the AL standings with a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs to securing a spot in the final week?

Well, it was a perfect storm of factors. The pitching staff was top-notch from top to bottom, despite injuries to Reese Olson and Casey Mize and the departure of Jack Flaherty at the deadline. The lineup of young hitters has improved from one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the first half of the season to making timely, decisive plays in important situations. Behind all of that is a coaching staff led by manager AJ Hinch that is pushing the right buttons as the Twins and Royals both stumble down the stretch.

Here's a closer look at five factors that have driven the Tigers' improbable run that has put them in a playoff position despite being traded at the transfer deadline and being 10 games behind in the wildcard race six weeks ago (Tuesday's stats).

No. 5: Bullpen Magic

The Tigers team's ERA over the last 30 days is 2.58, the best in the major leagues during that time. The next best team is the New York Mets at 2.86, and only four teams are below an ERA of 3.

Of course, the pitching staff is led by likely AL Cy Young Tarik Skubal (more on him shortly), but after the Flaherty trade, they were temporarily missing two true starters. Hinch got around injuries in creative ways with bullpen games, opening pitchers and bulk relievers.

The Tigers' relief pitchers have a combined ERA of 2.42 with a .211 average against and a WHIP of 1.0 since the beginning of August, according to Fangraphs. The Tigers' bullpen has a season ERA of 3.60, fifth-best in MLB, but jumped to second place since the beginning of August, just behind the Rays' 2.67.

It was a collective effort from the entire pitching staff. Since Aug. 1, seven Tigers relief pitchers have thrown at least 20 innings, and six — Brant Hurter, Tyler Holton, Jason Foley, Brenan Hanifee, Will Vest and Bryan Sammons — have an ERA of 2.70 or less. Holton has been one of the team's MVPs at times as an opener, bulk reliever and closer, and holds a team-best 0.79 ERA during that time. Another who missed the cutoff because he was in the starting lineup is Beau Brieske, who has a 1.75 ERA in 25.2 innings since early August.

And with Jackson Jobe, the most promising pitcher in baseball, a new relief pitcher is available.

JEFF SEIDEL: Jackson Jobe to the Detroit Tigers? Oh man, this great week just got better

No. 4: Timely hitting

The Tigers were a weak hitting team in the first half.

They failed to score a point for a long time, punctuated by a random failure once a week during the lean periods in May and June. But now they are more consistent and have found ways to cobble together runs at crucial moments.

Before the All-Star break, the Tigers ranked 18th in runs scored (413), 24th in batting average (.234), and 22nd in on-base plus slugging (.686). In September, the Tigers rank 15th in runs scored (82), with an average of .236 (16th) and an OPS of .685 (12th).

The numbers haven't changed much during the winning streak, but the power has been spread out at the right moments. They've scored 2 or fewer runs six times in September (2-4 record) and have pulled off comebacks against the Orioles, Royals, Athletics and Padres, to name a few recent ones. Dominant pitching has also made 1-0 wins possible.

No. 3: Parker Meadows' resurrection in midfield

Parker Meadows started in center field on Opening Day but struggled from the start and found himself in Triple-A Toledo shortly after the season began, where he worked to establish a positive performance at the plate.

He toiled in the minor leagues for two months before being called back to the league on July 5. Since then, he has been arguably the Tigers' most important outfielder.

The Tigers are 33-12 in his 45 appearances since his return. Meadows has a .291 batting average with six home runs and 24 RBIs while also being one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball. He has blocked several would-be home runs, made pike catches all over the field and generally covers the massive center field at Comerica with the speed and smoothness of a gazelle while hitting crucial hits, like the game-winning grand slam against the Padres.

No. 2: Improvements at shortstop

The Tigers' shortstop problem has improved since the trade deadline with the addition of Trey Sweeney. He came in the Flaherty trade as the second chip behind catcher Thayron Liranzo, who finished the season at High-A West Michigan. He came in as an A-level shortstop and quickly rose to the majors to rotate with Javier Báez.

He moved to shortstop after Báez was placed on the injured list in August with lower back and hip discomfort. He's been a positive addition with a 0.6 fWAR in Detroit, especially compared to Báez's minus-0.7 on the season, and has a .247 batting average with 17 RBIs in 31 appearances. Defensively, he's been solid at shortstop, potentially saving the season with his sliding, knee-slapping catch in the comeback against the Orioles.

No. 1: Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal

Of course, Skubal gets some of the credit for the run. The surefire AL Cy Young candidate continues to be a dominant presence every time his name appears on the lineup card and has eaten innings along with Montero to keep the bullpen quiet.

Skubal has maintained his pace for the AL Pitching Triple Crown during the run, leading the league in wins (17), strikeouts (221), ERA (2.48) and fWAR (5.6). His steady presence has led to wins when he starts, while lasting five innings or more in all 10 starts since early August, including another dominant performance on Tuesday when he held the Tampa Bay Rays scoreless in a 2-1 victory.

“We live day by day,” Skubal told reporters after his last start, a 4-2 win over the Royals. “We have to keep winning and hopefully we can take control of our destiny at the end.”

Jared Ramsey is a sports reporter for the Detroit Free Press Coverage of the city's professional teams, the state's two leading universities and more. Follow Jared on X @jared_ramsey22and email him at [email protected].

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