Proposition 1 could change elections in Idaho

COEUR d'ALENE – The most-watched contest this election is Proposition 1, a citizen initiative that would fundamentally change the way elections work in Idaho. If passed, it would open Idaho's primary elections to all voters and implement ranked-choice voting in general elections.

Why should we change the way we vote?

The main argument for Prop 1 is that it would allow more people to vote.

“The fundamental problem in Idaho is that 270,000 voters are denied participation in key primaries simply because they are not affiliated with a political party,” said Luke Mayville, spokesman for Idahoans for Open Primaries and a Sandpoint native. “If we exclude so many voters, we end up with elected officials who don’t represent the broader community.”

Before 2012, voters in Idaho could vote in primaries regardless of party affiliation. Prop 1 would implement a primary system that goes one step further. If passed, any candidate could participate in the primary, regardless of party affiliation. The four candidates with the most votes would run in the general election, even if they all belong to the same party.

Rep. Josh Tanner, R-Eagle, founder and treasurer of the political action committee One Person, One Vote, said he believes what is called an “open primary” under Prop 1 is misleading.

“It’s not an open elementary school,” Tanner said. “It's a lie. It's a convoluted mess. There will be a huge amount of people taking part. …The idea (of a primary) is that you nominate your advocate. This will just leave you with a huge, complicated choice.”

What about ranked choice voting?

In the general election, voters would evaluate the four candidates who were victorious in the primary.

If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote after the first ballot is counted, that candidate wins. If not, the candidate who received the fewest votes is eliminated, and any vote for that candidate is forwarded to the voter's second choice. This process repeats until a candidate receives at least half of the votes.

Proponents say ranked-choice voting guarantees election winners have the support of the broader community, while opponents say the method is confusing for voters and the results are difficult to verify.

Tanner said it would be problematic if multiple candidates from the same party appeared on the same ballot because many voters use party identifiers to decide how to vote. He said it will be difficult for voters to choose between candidates from the same party.

“Imagine if you had four people from the Republican Party who went to the general election,” he said. “Imagine having to evaluate so many people.”

It's likely that a top-four primary would lead to some uncontested races in the general election. Proponents of the initiative see this as a good thing.

“Your vote will actually count,” said Christie Wood, who sits on the Coeur d’Alene City Council. “Right now, candidates win (the primaries) and are never heard from again until they appear on the general election ballot. You are under no obligation to share your vision or values. In the top four primaries and ranked choice voting, we get to choose who represents us and they have to earn our vote.”

Who benefits?

In a word: moderates.

Travis Hagner, a political science lecturer at North Idaho College, said some places that have adopted nonpartisan primaries and ranked-choice voting for general elections have seen more viable moderate, third-party and independent candidates emerge.

“In states where there is a supermajority and where there is no racial diversity, there is evidence that this is leading to a decrease in polarization and an increase in more moderate candidates,” he said, pointing to the Republican supermajority and largely homogeneous population in Idaho. “The evidence suggests the system would produce more moderate candidates (in Idaho).”

Whatever the incumbents' concerns, Hagner said it's unlikely there will be “major disruption” in the makeup of government in a state like Idaho.

“The evidence doesn’t seem to support that,” he said.

How much does it cost?

We don't really know.

Proponents of Prop 1 don't believe changes to Idaho's voting machines will cost all that much. Mayville expects the changes would cost a few hundred thousand dollars, noting that low-cost software used in Utah is also available in Idaho and would mean election tabulation equipment would not need to be replaced.

Opponents think otherwise, pointing to a letter from the secretary of state that says Idaho may need to replace its vote tabulation systems because the systems currently certified for use in Idaho cannot tabulate the results of ranked-choice voting. If all of Idaho's election tally equipment were to be replaced, the letter said, it could cost an estimated $25 million to $40 million.

The fact is that no in-depth financial analysis has been carried out.

What else will change?

If voters decide to change the way they vote, they may have to wait longer for election results.

“I don’t want to exaggerate and say it’s going to take weeks (to tabulate the results), because that’s not the case,” Idaho Secretary of State Phil McGrane said. “But it would take significantly longer than before.”

Under the current system, McGrane said, each county conducts elections independently of the rest of the state. Kootenai County, for example, tabulates its election results and then reports those numbers to the state so they can be combined with results from other counties.

When multiple rounds of voting occur, it is not possible to continue processing results in a county until that county is merged with the others, McGrane said. Bear Lake County results must be reconciled with Kootenai County results, etc.

Voters have become accustomed to receiving election results overnight, McGrane said. When it comes to increasing confidence in elections, time is of the essence.

“It could be the cleanest and best process, but the longer it takes, the more doubts arise,” he said.

will of the people

If voters approve Proposition 1, the fight over its implementation will likely continue.

Some Republican lawmakers — including House Speaker Mike Moyle and R-Star — expect the Idaho Legislature could amend or repeal the initiative during the next legislative session. It's unclear how far such an effort would go.

“I would imagine people will introduce a bill, but will it get out of committee?” Tanner said. “I don't know. Is it going to die on the floor? I don't know.”

Tanner said he will likely support the effort to kill Proposition 1 because he believes it was fraudulently presented to voters.

“I would support a bill to abolish it,” he said.

Veterans

Wood, an Air Force veteran, said she began advocating for Proposition 1 after hearing from other veterans who believed their status as independent voters meant they had no voice in Idaho's key primary elections.

“I was really inspired by this group of veterans who stood up and supported other veterans and their right to vote,” she said.

Signs opposing Proposition 1 can be seen throughout Kootenai County.