Up to 12 inches of snow could land on I-25 as a winter storm approaches Colorado

Because it is a storm that could potentially have significant impacts on travelers along I-25 in Colorado, the National Weather Service has slightly downgraded its snowfall forecast. However, snow is still expected, and if the high-end forecast holds true, that's where the bigger problems could start in major population centers like Colorado Springs, Castle Rock and south Denver.

In the “expected snowfall” forecast, which has an 80 percent chance, about 2 to 3 inches of snow is expected to fall in Colorado Springs Tuesday morning through Thursday morning, while Castle Rock is expected to get about 4 to 6 inches.

There is still about 6 to 8 inches of snow on the busy stretch of I-25 between the two. That could be enough to cause problems, although snow tends to melt from roads more quickly during storms early in the season.

However, in the “high-end” scenario (see map “feature image” at top of article), conditions could make travel very difficult. In this scenario, up to a foot of snow will fall along the aforementioned stretch of I-25, as well as 7 inches in Colorado Springs, 9 inches in Castle Rock and 5 inches in Denver. Any travel problems associated with snow would be compounded by the one in ten chance of this scenario occurring.

Another point to keep in mind when it comes to travel is I-70 east of Denver. While the “most likely” scenario is for around four inches of snow to fall along this route, in a high snowfall scenario up to 12 inches could fall. In similar scenarios in the past, so much snow has caused road closures in this part of the state.

Elsewhere in the state, the highest snowfall amounts are expected to favor the peaks and regions south of I-70 – peaks north of Pagosa Springs and the Westcliffe area could see more than 20 inches. While the southern half of Colorado is favored, peaks along the Continental Divide in the Winter Park and Rocky Mountain National Park areas could still end up with 12 inches of fresh powder in the “most likely” snowfall scenario, as could peaks east of Steamboat Springs. The “high-end” snowfall scenario significantly increases expected snowfall amounts in these two northern areas, although the storm is still heavily favoring parts of Colorado south of I-70.

OpenSnow's Joel Gratz reports that up to 23 inches of snow could land at Wolf Creek Ski Area over the next five days, making it the highest total among the state's ski areas in this five-day outlook (see the full breakdown here). Gratz also assumes that there will be some snow until Saturday.

As per the standard, the National Weather Service also releases a map depicting a scenario with a 10 percent chance of “low” snowfall amounts. Check it out below:

According to the USDA, the statewide snowpack is currently at about 128 percent of the long-term norm for this date. Expect the gap between normal and current snowpack to widen after this snow rolls through.

Follow the changing weather forecast on the National Weather Service website.

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