How the AP can declare winners in states where polls have just closed

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Associated Press declared winners Tuesday in some states where polls had just closed and in some cases before votes were released.

How is that possible?

While closely contested races that take hours or days to count get the most attention, the AP has called landslide or uncontested races for decades Closing the survey Time.

That's what happened on Tuesday, when AP declared former President Donald Trump the winner in Arkansas as the latest election there ended at 8:30 p.m. ET. The AP also declared winners as polls were closed in previous states, as well as in some races for U.S. Senate and governor.

The AP considers several factors and analyzes available data before determining whether a winner can be declared when polls close in a particular state. But the AP will never announce the results of a contest until enough votes have been counted to clearly determine the winner.

Many calls for poll deadlines refer to uncontested elections

Many of the elections called close to polls are uncontested elections, in which only one candidate appears on the ballot and is therefore the only possible winner of the race. In some parts of the country, voters live in districts with multiple members running for office, such as in the state legislature, where more than one candidate is elected in a district. In these districts, an uncontested race occurs when the number of candidates on the ballot is equal to or less than the number of seats available in that district.

In the 2024 general election, the AP is picking winners in nearly 2,000 uncontested races, compared with about 4,500 contested races.

Sometimes, in non-competitive, multi-candidate races in areas where a political party has a proven history of one-sided victories, it is possible to declare winners at the close of the polls.

In these cases, the AP analyzes multiple sources of available data to confirm the result. These include results from AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey of voters and non-voters that determines who voted, how and why.

The AP will not call a race after polls close if AP VoteCast results indicate a departure from the state's long-standing political trends and voting history.

Only a small part will be calls for voting

AP VoteCast results will be available for all 50 states, but only a relatively small number of the least competitive races will be considered as potential voting dates. There is no AP VoteCast poll in the District of Columbia; As a result, none of the elections will be called there after polls close, even though the nation's capital has a long history of overwhelming victories for Democratic candidates.

For example, the AP's close calls in the 2020 presidential election included Wyoming, a state that last voted for a Democrat in 1968 and where Donald Trump won by 44 points over Joe Biden; and Massachusetts, where a Republican was last elected in 1984 and Biden won by 34 points over Trump.

Some states and counties have multiple poll closing times because they are in more than one time zone. In these cases, the AP will never declare a winner before the final polling time in that state or county. Florida, Texas and some other states will begin releasing election results from most states shortly after polls close in the earlier time zone. Votes that have already been counted from areas in earlier time zones will also be taken into account when deciding whether a winner can be determined by the time the final polls close.

Other election data the AP considers includes an area's voting history from recent elections, voter registration statistics and polls leading up to Election Day.

If the above data points confirm the expected result in a state where one of the major parties has historically dominated elections, the AP may call the race as soon as voting ends.

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Learn more about how and why the AP chooses the winners of the US elections at declare election 2024, A series from The Associated Press designed to help understand American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to improve its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. Learn more about AP's Democracy Initiative Here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.