The wafer-thin election campaign amounts to a blue wall for Harris

All major pre-election forecasts predicted a 50/50 election. The surveys on which these forecasts were based have so far proven to be extremely accurate – even astonishing.

Nevertheless, Trump has secured a commanding lead in the New York Times election forecast, and his probability of victory increases inexorably between 8 and 10 p.m. According to their forecasting “needle,” a 50/50 contest has turned into a race that is now 75/25 in Trump’s favor.

Their forecast still calls for an extremely close election, with Trump expected to win 288 Electoral College votes to 250 for Harris, according to current projections.

The Times is increasingly making the case for him to win re-election, even though such a victory would come against a number of states it believes are extremely close.

These states – the so-called “Blue Wall” trio of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and were won back by Biden in 2020.

The Times currently rates Wisconsin, where a third of the votes have been counted, as a 50/50 race, while Trump is the slight favorite in Pennsylvania, where nearly 40 percent of the votes have been counted, and Michigan. where only 13 percent were counted.

Given that Trump won in Georgia, where nearly 80 percent of the vote was cast, and in North Carolina, where more than half of the vote was cast, Trump is likely 50/50 over the election in these three contests. There are no votes from Nevada, the seventh swing state.

Nate Cohn, chief election analyst for the Times, has cautioned against treating a 75/25 race as a foregone conclusion.

Given their deficits in Georgia and North Carolina, Harris would have to “defeat Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win – a real possibility but a tall order,” he said, emphasizing that “we have very little data from those states.” and it will be a long time before we get there.”

Cohn emphasizes a key point: A model can only be so accurate if it processes so much data, much of which has yet to be counted.

Democrats remain confident they will get enough votes in Pennsylvania to win, but Trump could still overcome the blue wall, win over 300 Electoral College votes and return to the White House.

Nate Silver, the prominent forecaster, has released an opposite forecast. It showed Harris was the favorite at 53 percent, but updates on that stopped shortly after 9 p.m.

Contrary to all expectations, Trump could even win the popular vote. The Times currently rates this as a 50/50 possibility.

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