Hurricane Rafael is expected to reach major hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Cuba

MIAMI – Hurricane Rafael continues to strengthen and is expected to reach major hurricane strength when the late-season tropical system hits Cuba on Wednesday.

Millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida are now keeping an eye on the hurricane that is battering Cuba with devastating hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge and devastating waves along the coast.

HURRICANE RAFAEL TRACKER: FORECAST CONES, SPAGHETTI SLOTS, MAPS, WARNINGS AND MORE

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that while rapid strengthening is forecast, Rafael is expected to briefly weaken as it rotates over western Cuba. However, the storm is forecast to remain at hurricane strength (74 mph or greater) as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

The late-season hurricane struck parts of the western Caribbean on its path to Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC said hurricane conditions are expected over parts of the Cayman Islands through Wednesday morning.

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Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of west-central Cuba and the lower and central Florida Keys through Wednesday night.

Heavy rain is expected across the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

The NHC said rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the Cayman Islands and Cuba, with locally higher rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches in higher terrain. This raises concerns about flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected in the lower and central Florida Keys.

Meteorologists are also concerned about the possibility of a life-threatening storm surge. The NHC said a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected in the Cayman Islands and 8 to 12 feet in areas with onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is forecast for Dry Tortugas and 1 to 2 feet for the lower Florida Keys.

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Where is Hurricane Rafael?

This graphic shows the latest on Hurricane Rafael.
(FOX Weather)

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According to the latest report from the NHC, Rafael is more than 100 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth and moving northwest at 14 miles per hour.

Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 90 miles per hour, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The official forecast is for Rafael to strengthen with winds of 110 mph, making it a top-level Category 2 hurricane.

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A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the lower and central Florida Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge and Dry Tortugas. The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila are also included in the tropical storm warning.

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What is the forecast for Hurricane Rafael?

This graphic shows the forecast cone for Hurricane Rafael.
(FOX Weather)

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According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to move further northwest over the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. Along this path, the NHC said Rafael was expected to move over western Cuba later on Wednesday and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening.

From then on, computer forecast models disagree about exactly where Rafael is headed next.

“It is too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael may have on portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said. “Residents in this area should monitor forecast updates regularly.”