Hurricane Rafael is rapidly increasing in intensity as it heads toward Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico

CNN
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Hurricane Rafael, a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 miles per hour, is rapidly strengthening in the Caribbean as it makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.

After sweeping through the Caribbean, the powerful hurricane is expected to face serious resistance in the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall anywhere from the U.S. Gulf Coast to northeastern Mexico this weekend as a much weaker storm.

On Wednesday morning, Rafael was 160 miles from Cuba.

What threat, if any, Rafael poses to the Gulf Coast is still unclear, but it is coming into focus and a more certain forecast will be possible once the storm passes over the Gulf on Thursday.

Rafael's threat to Cuba is clear.

According to the National Hurricane Center, it will be a strong Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday afternoon. If it strengthens slightly more than currently forecast, landfall could be a major hurricane of Category 3 or stronger.

Nine storms, including Rafael, have rapidly intensified in the Atlantic basin this year, fueled by excessively warm water. Rapid intensification is becoming more common as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution.

According to NOAA, Rafael is the strongest hurricane to hit the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009. It is expected to be only the fifth hurricane to hit the Gulf of Mexico in November since 1966, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Heavy rains from the hurricane spread across Cuba on Wednesday morning and will flood the country through Thursday. Double-digit amounts of precipitation are possible. Tropical squalls blew off the country's southern coast early on Wednesday. These winds and stronger hurricane-force winds will overwhelm Cuba in the next few hours.

Rafael's strong winds also whipped up dangerous seas and could trigger a storm surge of up to 13 feet on Cuba's southern coast before landfall.

Rafael's possible route through the Gulf of Mexico later this week and weekend is slowly coming into focus, but is far from certain.

Rafael could still become the sixth named storm to hit the U.S. this season, but areas at risk are gradually being narrowed down.

Earlier in the week, forecast models showed very different possible paths for Rafael, but those models are starting to move toward a solution. Instead of a steady northwestward movement over the Gulf and landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, two major forecast models more consistently show a significant westward shift.

The hurricane center's current forecast suggests Rafael could potentially make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to northeastern Mexico, west of the original forecasts that included Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as a possibility.

“If future model runs continue to show this trend, additional leftward adjustment of the NHC track may be required,” the center said Wednesday.

Storm-damaging upper-elevation winds are expected to severely deteriorate Rafael as the storm approaches the U.S. coast, regardless of where it is located. Current forecasts suggest Rafael will return to tropical storm status by the weekend.

Rafael's impact on the U.S. could be limited, but the same strong tropical moisture fueling Wednesday's storm will bring torrential rain across the Southeast.

According to the Weather Prediction Center, there is a widespread area at risk of Level 2 out of 4 flooding in portions of South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama on Wednesday. Smaller portions of Georgia and South Carolina are at risk of Level 3 out of 4 flooding .

Rain showers could lead to dangerous flash flooding, but some areas could be slow to flood as many soils are dry after a record-breaking October.