Will Hurricane Rafael hit Texas? Storm forecast amid path shift

Hurricane Rafael's path has shifted slightly westward, with the storm now targeting South Texas after entering the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

Rafael strengthened into a hurricane on Tuesday evening, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expect the storm to further strengthen into a major hurricane before hitting Cuba later on Wednesday. According to the latest NHC update Wednesday morning, Rafael had maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane. It weakens as it moves over Cuba, but forms in the Gulf and continues to maintain hurricane status.

The storm has triggered a number of hurricane and tropical storm warnings, including in the Florida Keys, which passes nearby.

Initially, the NHC forecasts indicated that Rafael was targeting Louisiana, although it was unclear whether the storm would maintain tropical storm strength or greater upon arrival.

Now the direction has changed and the storm is heading toward Texas after moving further across the Gulf of Mexico. Experts expect Rafael to maintain hurricane strength until Saturday morning. After Saturday, the forecast is unclear, but forecasters expect it to have weakened to a tropical storm.

Although a new potential target appears on the storm's horizon, Rafael's extended journey across the Gulf could contribute to its weakening.

Hurdles in the path of Hurricane Rafael

NHC spokesperson Erica Grow Cei said Newsweek that the waters of the Gulf of Mexico cool below the 80 degree threshold responsible for hurricane strengthening and that Rafael will not experience rapid intensification as it moves across the Gulf, as was the case with Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, which contributed to the storms' devastation across Florida and the US South.

Strong wind shear is also expected to occur in the area, which could help dissipate the storm.

Chance of a historic landing

If Rafael stays organized long enough to land on the US Gulf Coast, it would be a first. A tropical storm or hurricane has never made landfall in Louisiana, where Rafael was originally headed, or Texas in November because strong winds and cool waters tend to dissipate storms before they hit this time of year.

The NHC warned that it is too early to say whether Rafael will impact the U.S. in addition to the Florida Keys, although experts urged people on the Gulf Coast to remain vigilant.

Expected Rafael Impact

Hurricane Rafael will have “life-threatening” impacts on Cuba. A storm surge of up to 14 feet is expected in southern Cuba, and heavy rains of up to 12 inches are expected in higher areas of Cuba.

The storm is also expected to produce a few tornadoes that could hit the Florida Keys and the far southwestern portions of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday night.