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Comparing the Electoral College map to 2020 and 2016

Comparing the Electoral College map to 2020 and 2016

Due to his election victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, Donald Trump will join Grover Cleveland as the only presidents to serve non-consecutive terms.

With a handful of states still waiting to be called, the former president has secured 277 Electoral College votes, more than the 270 needed to win, according to Associated Press projections.

The 2024 Electoral College map closely resembles the results of the 2016 election, the year Trump defied pollsters and pundits by defeating Hillary Clinton.

Map visualization
Election visualization

2020 Electoral College map

Joe Biden defeated Trump in 2020, winning 306 Electoral College votes compared to 232 votes for Trump.

In 2020, Biden flipped key battleground states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Michigan – states that Trump won against Clinton.

Election map 2020
The electoral map for the 2020 election.

270 to win

But this year, Trump has retaken Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia and is leading in Michigan and Arizona, which has not yet been announced. He is also leading in Nevada, a state he has not won in any previous election.

Biden also won Arizona and Georgia in 2020, two traditionally red states that have become more competitive in recent years.

In Maine, where Electoral College votes are divided by district, results for 2024 are still pending. However, the projected results appear to follow the pattern of 2020 and 2016, with Trump winning one of the state's votes and the Democratic candidate winning three.

In 2020, Biden also won Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, which Clinton did not win in 2016 but was won by Vice President Kamala Harris this year.

2016 Electoral College map

Trump's surprise victory in 2016 gave him 304 Electoral College votes to Clinton's 227 votes.

Trump's victory in the three blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan – states where Democrats won consistently from 1992 to 2012 – played a big role, securing him 46 votes, putting him over the 270 threshold.

Election map 2016
The electoral map for the 2016 election.

270 to win

In 2016, Trump also won Iowa and Florida, which had been won by President Barack Obama in the previous two elections. Trump held these states in the next two elections.

So far, Trump's only loss in 2024 compared to 2016 is a single electoral vote from Nebraska's second choice. Like Maine, the state divides its votes by district.

As in 2020, Trump won the presidency in 2016 without winning the popular vote, which he lost by almost 2.9 million votes (more than 7 million in 2020). In 2016, he became the fifth president in U.S. history to win the Electoral College while simultaneously losing the popular vote. In doing so, he joined George W. Bush against Al Gore in 2000, Benjamin Harrison against Cleveland in 1888, Rutherford B. Hayes against Samuel Tilden in 1876, John Quincy Adams against Andrew Jackson in 1824.

Trump and Clinton's Electoral College vote totals fell slightly in 2016 as a handful of “faithless electors” did not vote for their state's winning candidates as promised and instead voted for others who were not on the ballot.

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