On to Arizona; strong Joe; another leak – San Diego Union-Tribune

Good morning from Los Angeles,

The Padres quickly pivoted.

“About 10, 15 minutes ago,” Manny Machado said about 10, 15 minutes after the Padres' loss to the Dodgers last night to remove any doubt about who would win the National League West.

While the Dodgers sprayed champagne in their clubhouse, the Padres packed up their champagne calmly but not dejectedly.

Their feelings on the matter were somewhere between what Mike Shildt said and what Machado said.

“Definitely very disappointed,” Shildt said, without sounding too disappointed.

“No disappointment,” Machado said.

You can read about the Dodgers' 7-2 win last night, some of the highlights of their continued NL West dominance, and how the Padres have gotten closer this season in my game story (here).

Winning the division was a goal the Padres acknowledged, although not too often. They mostly talked about the playoffs.

It wasn't until last Saturday, when the Dodgers lost and the Padres won, that cutting the deficit to three games became something they and the rest of us needed to focus on during the three-game series was coming this week.

The Padres weren't shy about saying they wanted to overtake the Dodgers, but they did so knowing that pursuing that goal would help them in the pursuit of their ultimate goal.

“Just getting a chance to play in the playoffs was our main goal,” Jackson Merrill said. “We wanted it to be the division. We pushed for it. But sometimes (something) doesn’t work out the way you want it to.”

The Padres erased a two-game deficit in the West on Tuesday, the same night they clinched their spot in the playoffs. The Padres probably still needed to win to win the West and celebrated that night because there was no guarantee they would get another opportunity to do so.

“The things that had to happen for us to overtake the division were a lot to ask,” Joe Musgrove said last night. “Apart from our own performance, we also had to lose. So I don't think anyone is sitting here feeling depressed or depressed because the department doesn't exist. I secured a spot in the playoffs, which is the most important thing, whether it's the division or last place. We have a big series ahead of us. I think everyone is doing well and ready to put this behind them and move on to the next thing.

“I think the fact that it was such a long shot so late to make a push and win the division I think would have been the icing on the cake. “But I think everyone is really focused on to get our guys right and get everything in order before we get to the playoffs.”

The next

The Padres still control their own destiny in the race for the NL's top wild-card spot. If they win at least two of their three games against the Diamondbacks this weekend, they will host a best-of-three series at Petco Park starting Tuesday.

Entering this series in Phoenix, the Padres are three games ahead of the Diamondbacks and Mets. The Braves are another game back.

The Padres, the only one of these teams to have secured a playoff spot, would eliminate the Diamondbacks from contention for the first wild card spot with just one win. With an accompanying loss by the Mets in Milwaukee, the Padres would secure the top spot. (What the Padres need to complete this home series is two wins or one win and one Mets loss.)

There's still a chance the Padres are the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. A Diamondbacks win would mean the Padres are on the road next week and the destination depends on how the Mets and Braves perform.

Remember, these two teams have five scheduled games left, the last two against each other on Monday. (I wrote about why this is the case in yesterday's newsletter.)

As far as the Padres are concerned, winning the series against the Diamondbacks is necessary assuming they can control everything.

“This is going to be huge,” Jackson Merrill said. “We’re going to play our same style of baseball and whatever happens, happens. I’m confident we can go there and win two out of three or more.”

review

Machado insisted the Padres still have a long way to go. He boldly predicted that they would face the Astros in the World Series. He said last night that the Padres will play the Dodgers again soon.

But he took a moment to think.

“It’s been a hell of a year,” he said. “Look what we did. A lot of people didn’t think we would be where we are.”

Part of what they accomplished, reaching 91 wins for the fourth time in franchise history, was beating the Dodgers eight times in their 13 meetings this season.

It was the first time they won the season series since 2010. In most of these years it wasn't close. The Dodgers' record against the Padres from 2011 to 2023 was 153-77, meaning LA was one game shy of a win exactly twice as often as the Padres.

Musgrove's assessment looked forward after looking back. He alluded to a slow start that proved costly.

The Padres' turnaround this season can be traced back to June 19th. They started that day at 37-40 and have since gone 54-28.

The Dodgers were 46-29 through June 18.

“We’re slowly getting closer,” Musgrove said. “And I think if we could find that rhythm a little earlier in the year… the breakup would be a lot closer. I guess you can say “what if” all day long. But I think we are aware of that now. We know this group and know how we play. We know what things need to be done every day. So having a lot of these guys come back next year is probably something that's going to be on our minds in the offseason because we know we were so close, and if we put in some effort from the start, it could be a different scenario.”

Strong Joe

Even though he left the field earlier than he wanted and with a losing lead, Musgrove's 6⅓ innings last night provided a strong finish to his injury-marred regular season.

“I'm upset about the results tonight, but I'm not upset at all about the way I threw the ball,” said Musgrove, who took a 2-0 lead in the seventh inning before issuing a walk and a two-run hit Homer admitted. “…Overall I feel good about my stuff. Since this is my last start of the postseason, I feel good about where my stuff is at. My delivery and overall execution were really good.”

The big right-hander, who missed nearly half the season with elbow problems, has a 2.15 ERA in nine starts (50⅓ innings) since coming off the injured list. Thursday marked the fifth time in his last seven starts that he went at least six innings and allowed no more than two runs.

While Dylan Cease and Musgrove are expected to start, it's unknown how the Padres will round out their rotation for the best-of-three Wild Card Series. It could depend on whether Michael King has an important game to start in Arizona on Sunday.

The Padres swapped starting days for Yu Darvish and Martín Pérez, meaning Darvish will start in today's series opener.

The Padres rotation's ERA of 2.35 in 21 games this month is second-best in the Major Leagues.

Beginner brothers

The team's newcomers left the visitors' clubhouse last night dressed as friars.

Their costume consisted of a brown robe with a rope belt and wigs with the Swingin Friar's horseshoe hairstyle. They would wear the getup until they arrived at the team hotel in Arizona.

Merrill said: “It's nicer when you have to dress up after a win.”

Uh-oh

A second leak developed at the end of the Padres bullpen.

Tanner Scott relieved Musgrove with one out in the seventh inning and allowed three runs.

The Padres have given no indication that they intend to replace Robert Suarez as their primary closer. They insist he remains strong and say he just needs to vary his pitch mix.

But if they were to stay away from Suarez in certain situations, Scott would probably be the first option.

However, Scott has also raised concerns.

While he had given up just two runs in 16 innings in his 17 appearances prior to yesterday, he had only three error-free innings in the last 13 of those appearances.

Some of this could be part of the ups and downs of being a reliever.

Being a high-leverage option over an entire season is arguably the most difficult task in the game. The best relievers inevitably fight and are often back pitching a short time later because there was never any trouble.

There. Did I make you feel better about this situation?

Tidbits

• The Padres had not lost consecutive games in which they had a lead at one point in more than three months. This happened the last two nights. The only other time it happened this season was on June 2 against the Royals and the next two nights against the Angels.
• The Padres were 0-for-10 last night with runners in scoring position. They are batting .187 (14 of 75) with runners in scoring position in their last 10 games. Their .276 average ranked third in the MLB to that point.
• Before last night, the Padres were 3-0 when they played 0 of 9 or worse with runners in scoring position. They are 44-11 in games in which they have at least 10 at-bats with runners in scoring position.
• Machado went 3-for-4 last night after going 2-for-17 in the previous five games. He also didn't strike out last night for the first time in eleven games.
• Leadoff batter Luis Arraez was 0 for 4 last night and has gone 2 for 28 in his last seven games. A 22-game stretch followed in which he hit .432 (41-of-95).
• Kyle Higashioka's fifth-inning double snapped a streak of 32 at-bats without an extra-base hit.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. was 1-for-3 with a stolen base last night and is batting .296 with a .963 OPS in 20 games since returning from the injured list.
• Xander Bogaerts was 2-for-3 with a double last night and drove in a run for the third straight game. He is 9-of-24 (.375) in his last seven games.
• Yuki Matsui struck out the final out in the eighth inning last night in his first appearance since September 7th. If you're wondering why, here's an explanation from Wednesday's newsletter.

All right, that's it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.

Originally published: September 27, 2024 at 6:30 am