Week 5 CFB odds, tips, best bets

A week after needing a Hail Mary touchdown pass in the fourth quarter to beat Baylor in Boulder, Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes hit the road for a Big 12 matchup against Central Florida on Saturday afternoon.

UCF is off to a 3-0 start, straight up and against the spread. The Knights are clear home favorites and score 14 points after a score of -15.5.

The bookmakers are also predicting a lot of points, with the total score being around 62 points. The only concern is the weather, as some rain is forecast for the Orlando area with winds up to 10 miles per hour.

However, both offenses have a distinct advantage that they can exploit, and in this preview I will explain how that advantage can impact a specific player base.

Colorado vs UCF odds

Colorado outlook

With a record of 3-1, Colorado is already halfway through its 5.5-game winning streak. The problem is that the Buffaloes likely won't get back into the favorites bracket until Week 9, when they host Cincinnati.

However, after a prediction of 3.5 wins in 2023, we can acknowledge that there has been a moderate improvement. The Buffaloes finished last season ranked 114th defensively (+0.04) in adjusted Expected Points Added (Adj. EPA) per game. And now, after four games, they are in 36th place with a value of -0.11.

Colorado faces a tough test against a UCF offense that ranks seventh in Adj. EPA (-0.11). More specifically, the biggest challenge will be slowing down the Knights' rushing attack, which ranks second nationally in yards per game (336.5).

UCF is one of five teams with a run-play rate of 73% or higher, with the top three teams all being service academy schools.

The Knights also have the highest rushing success rate at 57.4%, and if they stay in front of the chains they have a great opportunity to capitalize on their opportunities inside the red zone.

UCF Outlook

UCF's success running the ball helps tip the battle of possession in its favor.

According to TeamRankings, the Knights control the ball for nearly 33.5 minutes per game, the 14th longest mark in Division I. Gaining time of possession could be crucial to keeping the UCF defense off the field as much as possible.

The Knights rank 105th defensively in Adj. EPA (+0.13). They particularly struggle with the pass, ranking 128th in opponents' completions (26 per game) and 120th in passing yards (310.5).

Gus Malzahn hasn't come into his own since hiring Ted Roof from Oklahoma to run the defense. In 2023, the Knights' defense ranked 97th in Adj., higher than this season. EPA (+0.04).

Opponents have the sixth-highest passing percentage against UCF, and the Buffaloes will likely continue that trend.

Colorado vs. UCF selection

Colorado's offense tends to be one-sided due to its difficulty passing the ball. And with the Buffaloes averaging a measly 2.6 yards per carry, they have almost completely given up on the run.

While Colorado's run-play rate is the fourth-lowest at 36.4%, this matchup certainly suits its passing game with Shedeur Sanders at quarterback.

The Buffaloes have relied heavily on the combination of Sanders and Travis Hunter at the wide receiver position. Hunter has twice as many balls as any other Colorado player while leading the team in scoring.

Betting on college football?

With the fourth-smallest odds (+900) to win the Heisman Trophy at bet365, the dynamic two-way player will need to continue to create opportunities to stay in the race.

Hunter's receiving total is 96.5 yards entering Saturday, and he has exceeded that number in five straight games. And if there's ever an opponent Hunter can enjoy, it's UCF and its pass defense.

Since it's hard to see where the stops will come from when both teams play to their strengths, this matchup is tailor-made for Hunter to have a big game.

Best Bet: Travis Hunter Over 96.5 Yards (-115, bet365)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Andy Fenelon is an experienced sports bettor with a flair for betting. He once took a +11673 futures-based three-legger against the Milwaukee Brewers.