Two crucial duels: Denver Broncos have to win against the New York Jets

The Denver Broncos will have to work hard to get their second win of the season away against them New York Jets. The Jets have a strong defense and an offense that is going well so far this season.

To help the Broncos win, two crucial matchups must be attacked. Let's investigate.

The Broncos can't fear Jets cornerback Sauce Garnder. Now, Gardner has played tight coverage and allowed an average of 2.1 yards of separation as a boundary corner, but completion has been an issue.

In this boundary alignment, Gardner allows the sixth-highest EPA coverage and catches 72.7% of his targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. He has struggled at the catch point, but teams have been afraid to target him, with 11 targets in three games.

To highlight these issues, Gardner's allowable catch rate is 17.4% higher than expected. This clarifies his reporting and shows what targets are likely to be caught and he allows a catch rate that is 17.4% above expected.

That means Gardner's coverage is tight and he's there during the catch window but doesn't force expected incompletions. This is different than DJ Reed and Brandin Echols, who force more incompletions than expected.

Among these three Jets corners, Gardner is targeted the most with a 15.3 shooting percentage, compared to 10% for Reed and 9.4% for Echols.

The Broncos' receivers have struggled to create spacing, with Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds' average spacing well below league average. That shouldn't stop Bo Nix from targeting Garnder, but the Broncos' offensive line and Nix will have to do well with their pre-snap reads to dictate pressure.

But here's the thing; You can't throw a bad pass in Gardner's direction. otherwise he will make you pay for it.

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The Broncos' cornerback trio of Patrick Surtain II, Riley Moss and Ja'Quan McMillian will face a lot of pressure on defense. They will face Jets wideouts Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard and Mike Williams.

Wilson has struggled this season with 15 catches on 26 targets, 150 yards and a single touchdown, but a negative receiving EPA of 8.3. The question for the Broncos is which corner they have to play against which receiver most often.

Surtain faced a brutal onslaught of receivers and handled them all, but they were guys more suited to his style of play. Putting him against Wilson could lead to problems, although Surtain picked off Wilson last year with two catches for 22 yards on six targets with an interception and a pass breakup. Surtain can handle it, but can Moss and McMillian handle Lazard and Williams?

Both receivers have a positive receiving EPA, with Lazard at 11.8 and Williams at 3.7. Their size and style of play can work against Moss and McMillian. The Jets have Lazard and Wilson in the slot almost equally, 38.9% for Lazard and 38.7% for Wilson.

This puts pressure on McMillian as Lazard has a significant size advantage and Wilson would be one of the toughest opponents the young nickel corner has faced in his career. Last year, McMillian was tasked with facing off against Randall Cobb for most of the game, so this year's matchup will be very different.

The key matchup here is McMillian versus Lazard or Wilson in the slot. However, how the Jets move Wilson and Lazard will depend on what Vance Joseph has planned for the Broncos' cornerback trio.

If they can contain Wilson and Lazard, no matter where they line up or who they face, it will go a long way toward a win for the Broncos.

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