Helene is expected to be named a major hurricane and will hit the USA: State of emergency for Florida

23 September 2024

Monday night

Florida has declared a state of emergency in light of a possible major hurricane that could make landfall on Thursday.

A developing storm in the northwestern Caribbean is becoming slightly better organized with winds of 35 mph. It is currently classified as a potential Tropical Storm Nine. At wind speeds above 63 km/h, the center becomes more robust and receives the stronger name “Tropical Storm Helene”.

The storm has not yet formed, but is better captured by the models, which is reflected in greater agreement with the forecast.

A major concern is the warm waters of 30 to 32 °C during the forecast period. This increases the likelihood that this will develop into a major hurricane of Category 3 or higher with wind speeds OVER 177 km/h.

There are also some adjustments regarding track, intensity and forward speed.

Below I'll show the steering mechanism that will capture Future Helene. A low pressure system aloft will capture her to accelerate landfall and then steer her inland. After she reaches Florida, she could miss the east coast and turn into the Ohio Valley.

Also check out the interactive Windy widget at the bottom of this post after the computer model maps.

Review of the 2024 tropical season in the Atlantic so far:

Named storms

• Alberto, June 19-20; peaked as a tropical storm
• Beryl June 28 11; peaked as a Category 5 hurricane
• Chris June 30 to July 1; peaked as a tropical storm
• Debby 3 to 9 August
• Ernesto August 12-20; peaked as a Category 2 hurricane
• Francine, September 9-12; peaked as a Category 2 hurricane
• Gordon September 11-17; Tropical Storm
• Helen and Isaac are the NEXT NAMES on the list

IR satellite loop

National Hurricane Center Update: Monday, 8:00 p.m.

• LOCATION…18.3N 82.3W
• About 100 miles … 160 kilometers southwest of Grand Cayman
• About 300 miles … 485 kilometers southeast of the western tip of Cuba
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE WIND FORCE…35 MPH…55 KM/H
• CURRENT MOTION…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRINT…1002MB…29.59INCH

Computer model forecast trajectories

The reason for this course and the inland curve is shown below.

HWRF model animation:

Tuesday morning to Saturday morning

Snapshot Thursday morning

Currently, wind speeds of OVER 100 knots = 115 mph are forecast. That would be Category 3.

Computer model predicted intensity

Many models have Category 3 or 4 strength at the landfill on Thursday.

Expected Lane/Cone/Time: National Hurricane Center

Arrival of tropical storm winds

At or over 39 miles per hour

Weather highlights

Precipitation: 3 to 6 inches, with up to 10 inches near the landfall route.

Storm surge: Rainfall of 1 to 3 feet is expected in the Florida Keys. Rainfall may increase to 10 feet near landfall north of Tamps, but the entire Florida Gulf Coast will be affected.

STEERING THE STORM

Here is the European ECMWF model that first got a good handle on this track. The reason is at the jet stream level. As this trough descends into the southeastern US and closes, the circulation will help accelerate the future hurricane and make it make landfall sooner. This will capture it and pull it north and THEN northwest into the Ohio Valley. While heavy rainbands may reach the coastal regions of the Carolinas, the main storm will begin turning further inland in Georgia.

Wednesday morning to Saturday morning

Snapshots

Thursday morning

The hurricane reached its peak intensity over water. It is expected to make landfall around noon.

Thursday night

It moves into Georgia and weakens to a tropical storm. It turns north and then northwest, away from the East Coast.

Friday

The remaining tropical depression will lose its identity as the energy is absorbed by the closed low pressure system in the upper atmosphere.

If this is confirmed, learning in winter may have repeated effects on atmospheric memory.

Interactive widget by WINDY

Use the margin below to scroll through to Wednesday, when this storm may form near Cancun and enter the Gulf of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF APPLICABLE WARNINGS AND ALERT INFORCEMENTS:

A hurricane warning is in effect for …

* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico

* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A tropical storm warning is in effect for …

* Grand Cayman

* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico

* Cuban provinces of Artemisa and Pinar del Rio and the island

youth

A tropical storm warning is in effect for …

* Dry Tortugas

* Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge

Please share your thoughts and best weather pictures/videos or just stay in touch via social media.

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My message about dyslexia again

I realize there are some spelling and grammatical errors and the occasional other mishap. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I might miss. I've made a few public statements over the years, but if you're new here, you may have missed it: I'm dyslexic and found out in my sophomore year at Cornell University. It didn't stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had come this far without prior knowledge and that I shouldn't use it as a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I overlook my mistakes when proofreading. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes does it wrong and makes it worse. I can also make mistakes when making predictions. No one can predict the future perfectly. All maps and information are accurate. The “wordy” stuff can prove difficult.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a timely timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when she has time. That might be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps prove that what you are reading is really mine… That's part of my charm. #FITF