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Here's who's winning between Trump and Harris in the latest presidential polls

Posted on by Vanessa
Here's who's winning between Trump and Harris in the latest presidential polls

Topline

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seemingly dead heat with just over two weeks to go until the election. That's according to a number of polls, most of which show Harris with a narrow national lead — even though the key swing states are virtually tied.

Important facts

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult's weekly poll released Tuesday, in line with last week's results but down from her 51% to 45% lead in the two polls last week.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll also released Tuesday showed Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when rounded numbers are used, which is within the poll's margin of error of two points); Last week's Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

In a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups' last poll August, in which Harris had a five-point lead.

Harris also led Trump by just one point in Emerson College's poll of likely voters released Friday, after Harris had a two-point lead in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

In a Fox News poll released on Wednesday, Trump regained his lead over Harris. The poll showed him ahead 50-48% among likely voters – a change from Harris' 50-48% lead in September after Trump led her 50-49% in August.

Harris leads in two other polls released Wednesday: She has a five-point lead (52% to 47%) in a Marist College poll of likely voters, while Harris has a two-point lead in the closely watched pollster's September poll had a four-point (49%-45%) lead in an Economist/YouGov probability poll, matching Harris' lead last week.

Several other polls show narrower margins: Trump trails Harris 51% to 49% in a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll of registered voters Oct. 11-13, after the two were tied in the groups' September poll.

Trump and Harris were tied at 48% in a new NBC poll of registered voters released Oct. 13, while an ABC/Ipsos poll released the same day shows Harris with a lead of two among likely voters points (50%-48%). within the ABC poll's 2.5-point margin of error – a shift after both ABC and NBC showed Harris with a lead of about five points last month.

A third CBS/YouGov poll from Oct. 13 showed Harris leading Trump among likely voters 51% to 48% – slightly narrower than Harris' 52% to 48% lead last month – while Harris was 50% % to 49% the seven battleground states have a smaller lead.

Harris is leading Trump in the groups' poll 49% to 46% in a New York Times/Siena poll as of Oct. 8, the first time she has led Trump in the groups' poll since July.

Three other polls in the past month – a Quinnipiac poll released on September 24 and a CNN/SSRS poll released on September 24 – showed Trump and Harris tied.

Harris has squandered Trump's lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her lead has narrowed slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight's weighted polling average.

Who is likely to win the election: Harris or Trump?

According to FiveThirtyEight's election forecast, Trump is favored to win 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Harris. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also gives Trump a narrow lead, but recently wrote that he has “never seen an election where the forecast was near 50/50 for longer.”

Big number

0.8. That's how many points Harris is ahead of Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics poll average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's average shows Harris with a 1.8-point lead, and Nate Silver sees Harris 1.6 points higher in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

According to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Harris narrowly leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump has an advantage in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. That means Trump would win the election if state-level polls turned out to be exactly right — but all seven swing states are in the single digits and most have margins of less than one percentage point.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, that lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, found that 54% supported Harris, compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said , they weren't sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than previous peaks for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll . The survey had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Polls leading up to the debate showed that Harris's rise in poll numbers appeared to have plateaued, including a Sept. 3-5 NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters that showed Harris leading 49% to 48 % ahead of Trump, compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that the majority of voters across all demographic groups viewed Harris' performance in the September 10 debate positively. Overall, 67% said she did well, compared to 40% who said the same goes for Trump. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, Harris was up 52% ​​to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters , essentially unchanged from her six-point lead among likely voters in ABC/Ipsos polls in late August and early August – even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate last week.

Important background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of defying calls from his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to formally nominate her in a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris' surge in the polls coincides with a surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while Republican enthusiasm is at 71%. stagnates. according to a Monmouth University survey released Aug. 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris won the debate – but she largely didn't change voters' minds (Forbes)

Trump's lead over Biden and Harris widened after RNC poll finds HarrisX/Forbes (Forbes)

Here's how Kamala Harris performs against Trump in polls – while Biden drops out and supports Harris (Forbes)

Harris' lead over Trump remains unchanged after DNC, first poll results (Forbes)

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