Jackson Merrill's rookie season was so special that Padres might now want to consider a long-term deal – San Diego Union-Tribune

When it comes to Jackson Merrill, you can be sure that AJ Preller has thought about this question:

Should Preller try to sign the 21-year-old center fielder/shortstop to a mega-contract and buy out his arbitration years plus portions of free agency?

At first glance, it is too early to think about it. Merrill just completed its first big league season this month; he only played in 200 minor league games before this year.

Why not wait and see how his next season or two turns out?

Plus, Merrill himself might not want to complicate things.

The young guy seems to excel at keeping the focus on the main thing – as he described it several times this year, focusing on helping the Padres win the day's game. Three summers ago, Merrill — who was eager to begin his professional career after Preller drafted him out of a Maryland high school — agreed to a draft bonus that was about $800,000 less than the MLB recommendation for the slot.

Still, a long-term contract seems worth considering.

Merrill's rookie year was very special.

The rookie significantly exceeded his $740,000 salary and helped the Padres keep pace with two major market rivals – the Dodgers and Mets – who spent about twice as much on player payroll.

Merrill was one of 16 position players to record 5.3 or higher win shares, a very complicated (and flawed) statistic that, according to FanGraphs analysis, summarizes all of a player's contributions to his team's wins into a single number. Three of the 16 players had yet to qualify for salary arbitration: Merrill, the Orioles' 23-year-old Gunnar Henderson and the Reds' Elly De La Cruz, 22.

Estimates from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com suggest Merrill's season on the free agent market would be worth between $34 million and $42.3 million. Although his free agency won't occur until the 2029-30 offseason, these numbers show where things could go.

So there's reason to believe that Merrill's early career bodes well for sustained success.

Among the many impressive properties, two ingredients stand out.

First, the Nationals actually asked for Merrill in the Juan Soto trade talks during the 2023 season.

Second, as part of his laser show of generating power at all pitches, the rookie showed a rare ability to hit home runs from high-velocity pitches that lay between him and the inside corner of the plate.

Why does it matter that Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo sought Merrill as part of the Soto package that started with young standouts CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore?

That means two of MLB's better talent evaluators – Rizzo and Preller – believed in Merrill and therefore probably weren't surprised by his special rookie year. Showing high regard for Merrill, Preller kept him out of the trade and picked up James Wood, a hard-hitting Padres outfielder and draftee who reminded some scouts of a young Aaron Judge and had higher ratings in some media outlets than Merrill entering this season .

As for Merrill turning pitches inside the inside corner into home runs and other hits, that was far from the only special hitting ability he displayed.

But it was still breathtaking because many big leaguers either fail to put good wood on the pitches or they catch it way behind the wall or right on the wall.

Quickly with his hips united from head to toe, Merrill pulled “inside-inside” pitches at 90.1, 90.4 and 94.4 mph over the right field wall. And he did it without standing any further away from the plate.

Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen raised his hands in disbelief when Merrill's 394-foot run in the ninth inning tied the game July 30 at Petco Park.

Having recently allowed home runs against MLB stars Alex Bregman and Manny Machado, Treinen then compared those hits to those of the rookie.

“Probably the most impressive is Jackson Merrill,” Treinan told Bill Plunkett of the Southern California News Group. “Inside it’s a ball and a half. So I’m not going to try to reinvent the wheel.”

As a rookie, Merrill hit .292 with 31 doubles. And he surprised underdogs with 25 home runs, including a postseason hit at Dodger Stadium.

Proof that Merrill is difficult to read: Five home runs went to opposite field, twelve over center field and eight over right field.

Whether there was any coincidence in the rookie's successful season is a mystery to me.

His expected batting average (.308) and expected slugging percentage (.547) – statistics intended to account for the randomness of results – were in the top 4% of MLB hitters.

Yes, he chased throws out of the strike zone at a fairly high rate. Given his skills with the bat, this wasn't surprising. His ability to handle some of those pitches — a skill that helped homegrown Giants starter Pablo Sandoval contribute to three World Series-winning teams — added to his unpredictability.

It was an impressive rookie season.

Originally published: October 22, 2024 at 5:26 p.m