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Here's who's winning between Trump and Harris in the latest presidential polls

Posted on by Vanessa
Here's who's winning between Trump and Harris in the latest presidential polls

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, according to two new polls — but most polls show it's a dead heat for the White House, leaving the race completely unpredictable with less than two weeks before Election Day .

Important facts

In an ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters released Sunday, Harris leads Trump by four points (51% to 47%), a slight increase from her 50% to 48% lead in early October, while a CBS poll released Sunday /YouGov poll shows Harris on the rise 50-49%, a shift from the vice president's 51-48% lead in mid-October (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5 and the CBS poll's margin of error was 2, 6).

According to an Emerson College Polling poll released Saturday (Oct. 23-24), the two candidates are tied at 49%, after Harris led 49% to 48% a week earlier (the poll has a margin of error of 3). , and it's the first time in Emerson's weekly poll that Harris hasn't had a lead since August.

Trump and Harris are tied with 48% of likely voters in the Times/Siena poll released Friday (2.2 margin of error), results that are “not encouraging” to Harris given that Democrats won the popular vote in recent elections Even if they did, the White House lost, notes The Times.

The poll represents a decline in support for Harris since the Times' previous poll in early October, which showed her with a 49% to 46% lead over Trump, while at least three polls in the past week showed Trump with a narrow lead and Six more shows found Harris leading the way.

A CNN/SSRS poll released Friday also has the candidates deadlocked at 47% (margin of error 3.1), which also represents a downward trend for Harris, who led Trump 48% to 47% in the groups' September poll Their poll shortly after President Joe Biden left office showed Trump at 49% and Harris at 46%.

Trump leads 48% to 46% (margin of error 3.1) in a CNBC poll of registered voters released Thursday, and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters Wednesday ( Margin of error 2.5) — a shift in Trump's favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

According to a HarrisX/Forbes poll (margin of error 2.5) released Wednesday, Trump leads Harris by two points among likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, 51% to 49%, and he is one point higher . 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.

Several other recent polls show Harris ahead: In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters conducted Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47% to 44% lead over Trump Among respondents who said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote, they planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% did not vote for a candidate.

In an Economist/YouGov poll of likely voters (margin of error 3), also released Wednesday, Harris is up three points, 49% to 46%, when third-party candidates are on the ballot and respondents have the option to vote for “other.” “,” “not sure” or “wouldn't vote,” a one-point drop from their lead in the groups' previous poll from Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult's weekly poll released Tuesday, in line with last week's results but down from her 51% to 45% lead in the two polls last week.

Harris has chipped away at Trump's lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her lead has narrowed slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight's weighted polling average.

Important note: Presidential polls have often been wrong

And there's a lot of speculation about why they're wrong this year – and who might benefit. Read all about it in this story.

According to polls, who will win the election: Harris or Trump?

According to FiveThirtyEight's election forecast, Trump is favored to win 54 times out of 100, compared to 46 for Harris.

Big number

1.3. That's how many points Harris is ahead of Trump in the FiveThirtyEight poll average. Meanwhile, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows Trump up 0.1 points, and Nate Silver has Harris up 1.2 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

Harris leads in Michigan and Nevada, while Trump leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina – although all within the margin of error – while Georgia and Arizona are tied.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, that lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, found that 54% supported Harris, compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said , they weren't sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than previous peaks for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll . The survey had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Polls leading up to the debate showed that Harris's polling numbers appeared to be stabilizing, including an NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters from September 3-5 that showed Harris leading 49% to 48%. ahead of Trump, compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly affect the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that the majority of voters across all demographic groups viewed Harris' performance in the September 10 debate positively. Overall, 67% said she did well, compared to 40% who said the same goes for Trump. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, Harris was up 52% ​​to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters , essentially unchanged from her six-point lead among likely voters in ABC/Ipsos polls in late August and early August — even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

Important background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of defying calls from his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her official nomination in a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris' surge in the polls coincides with a surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while Republican enthusiasm is at 71%. stagnates. according to a Monmouth University survey released Aug. 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points – but 12% still decide (Forbes)

Swing state polls for the 2024 election: Latest polls show Trump in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump rises 1 point in latest poll – while Harris struggles with Latinos (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump leads in latest poll – but undecided voters could influence results (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump rises 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in latest poll (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest poll (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

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