Air Force Falcons vs. Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Odds and Tips

The Navy Midshipmen will face the Air Force Falcons in the first leg for the Commander in Chief's Trophy. Navy is 4-0 with wins over Bucknell, Temple, Memphis and UAB. The Midshipmen have defeated all of their opponents except Memphis, but Memphis was one of the favorites to win their conference before this result. The Falcons are 1-3, with their only win coming against Merrimack, an FCS school. This is a bad start for a team whose win total in the previous season was 6.5. Things don't get much easier from here, as Army and Oregon State are still on the non-conference schedule and there are five more conference games. This game is a rivalry game, meaning that no matter how good one team looks and how bad another team looks, anything can happen.

Navy boasts the 10th-best offense in the country in terms of numbers, averaging 47.7 points and 470.7 yards per game. Traditionally, the Navy runs football; In 2024, the average is 307.3 rushing yards per contest, which is fourth-best in the country. It ranked 18th nationally in rushing yards last season. Unlike previous years, the Midshipmen aren't limited to just running the ball. They are averaging 163.3 passing yards per game, compared to 105.7 last season. In their last two games, they have thrown for 205 and 225 passing yards – a huge improvement from last season, when they only threw for more than 150 yards twice. They've done it three times this year. Navy doesn't have an explosive passing offense, but it does exist have a passing offense – that's more than can be said about Navy teams historically, and their running game is explosive. Air Force, on the other hand, faces one of the worst offenses in the country – ranked 131st nationally. Luckily for the Falcons, their defense didn't look too bad. They are allowing an average of just 21.3 points and 342 yards per game. Navy will be by far the strongest offense they have played this year and will put this defense to the test. Most people would tell you to bet on the under in the Service Academy game, but given Navy's offense, that total is too low for me and Navy has made the overall four times this year. Instead, look for Navy to cover this small spread. The Midshipmen are 3-1 against the spread while Air Force is 0-4 ATS and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Air Force did well on defense, but didn't play offense like Navy and the offense is so bad it could be ruled out in this game. Let's take the Midshipmen to cover them in a rivalry game.

Navy vs. Air Force Prediction: Navy -10 (-110) available at time of publication. Playable under this number.

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