An introduction to Trump's plan for Election Day

I don't write many diaries, but I wanted to post one here in hopes that people will bookmark it for the unrest that's sure to come on Election Day. There are a number of moving parts, and I've seen pieces that relate to one part or another, but I haven't seen anything that relates to Trump's plan as a whole when it comes to winning the election.

Before I begin, however, I would like to refer you to this excellent, nerve-calming journal: What the Electoral Reform Act Changed. If you haven't read it yet, I recommend you do so. It explains well how the electoral reform law closed the legal loopholes that were exploited in the run-up to January 6th. Will Trump and his ilk try to steal the election again? Of course they will! Luckily, however, they can't do it the same way they tried in 2020. These gaps have been closed.

So what's the plan? In short, it is about achieving victory in each case and trying to bring the matter to court. Here are the components I perceive:

• RIGHT NOW: Appeal to the “Christian-nationalist” vote.
  Not that they're counting on votes to get it passed, but the only demographic they're trying to appeal to are the people who would be “in power” if they managed to get this passed.
• RIGHT NOW: The polls
  I know we all cling to the polls and worry when a poll doesn't go “our way,” but I think that's a mistake. Right now the Trumpsters are “flooding” the zone with polls linked to right-wing groups. (I read somewhere that out of 30 polls in a month, 21 were associated with right-wing pollsters.) The point of these polls is do not reflect what is happening on the ground. This is important. The point of the polls is to paint the picture that Trump is ahead. Remember the Christian nationalists from the previous bullet point? These are the people who are trying to deceive the Trumpists into believing that a victory on election night is certain, that all “normal” people are voting for Trump, etc. Trump doesn't actually have to do that Be in advance. He just has to look that way. This is a justification for the endless “the election was stolen” rhetoric that awaits us.
• ELECTION EVENING: Trump declares victory.
  No matter what happens, Trump will declare his victory on election night. Actual votes are not important for the purposes of this bullet point. It doesn't matter whether he's ahead or behind. As soon as he can declare victory, he will.
• ELECTION EVENING: Shenanigans begin. Seek:
  
  • “Stop the Count! “ “Continue counting!”
    Depending on whether Trump is ahead or behind, he will ask different states to stop or continue their counts. (Special note: Did you notice a case just decided by the 5th Circuit that said votes in Mississippi would only be counted if they were received by Election Day, regardless of whether or not they were postmarked before the election? We' I will see the material again, and this is where I expect an attempt at a nationwide injunction.)
  • “The Democrats cheated!” Be prepared to hear this non-stop for a while.
  • Legal proceedings: There are pending lawsuits attempting to overwhelm the justice system. Court proceedings are pending to delay certification. Court cases are pending to disqualify votes/voters. There will be swarms and blizzards and mountains of lawsuits, cases from horizon to horizon as far as the eye can see. At least some are filed simply to delay the process.
  • Intimidation of poll workers/voters
    I know the Justice Department is involved, but it wouldn't surprise me if some random, homegrown groups of so-called “poll watchers” popped up here and there around the country trying to harass real poll workers for the “wrong kind” of voters to deter.
  • Delay/denial of certification
    This is a big deal. Expect to learn more about the certification process in different countries than you ever imagined. However, also note that this was one of the areas specifically addressed in the Electoral Vote Count Reform Act. They'll definitely try, but if there's any luck, this loophole has been successfully closed (fingers crossed!)
    • Related: “December 8th is the new January 6th” An important date to remember here is the “Safe Harbor” date of December 8th. This is the date by which all states must Get your voter rolls certified and submitted. If I remember correctly, it was this date that was in play when the Supreme Court stepped in and gave George Bush the presidency. One of the Trump team's big goals in delaying certification will certainly be to get everything as close to December 8th as possible. The closer we get to December 8th, the more likely it is that the Supreme Court will intervene. Which brings us to…
  • Big Target #1: The Supreme Court
    One can argue that Trump has six Supreme Court justices in his pocket. One of the main goals of the campaign is to get one of the many, many, many lawsuits they have filed (and will continue to file) to the Supreme Court. Trump assumes the Supreme Court will simply declare him the winner. For the purposes of this diary, I won't go into detail about how likely or unlikely that is on the ground. All I'm saying is that I believe Trump's team's plan is to “drop the ball” by having the Supreme Court essentially crown him king, never mind what the actual vote count is .
  • Big Target No. 2: House of Representatives
    Another plan (I've seen this occasionally in diaries) is to try to send the election to the House of Representatives. Essentially, if there was a tie among the electors and no one reached 270 votes (e.g., if both candidates had 269 votes), the House of Representatives could then vote on the winner, one vote per state. Since there are more Republican states than Democratic states, Trump's team figures this would go their way if they could get it to the House of Representatives.

    Of all the far-reaching plans the Trump team has proposed, this “House of Representatives” probably has the greatest concentration of plot holes. This particular flight of fancy has already been exposed in several other diaries, so I won't go into it in detail here. However, I would like to point out that the Speaker of the House will not necessarily be current Speaker Mike Johnson. Mike Johnson has indicated he would refuse to certify an election unless Trump was the winner. The conditions of all Members of the House of Representatives (including the speaker!) ends with the election. Mike Johnson won't be able to deny anyone unless he wins his own seat And Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives And He is re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives. It could happen, but it's not as certain as he makes it out to be.

Remember, Trump is Trump. He dreams of being a dictator (remember he wanted to lead the January 6th insurgents on that deadly day? He expected it to be his triumphant coronationand not to mention annoying elections.) However, not only does he dream of being a dictator, but winning the election is the only hope he has of avoiding prison. He will absolutely fight like a rat in a poke. Expect every state to be challenged, every count to be challenged, and every certification to be dragged through the courts.

Our fight will not be over on Election Day. We must continue to fight until the next president is actually sworn in. I have every confidence that we can do it; but expect lots of bumps along the way.

The main point in all of this is that the more voices there are, the harder it will be to successfully push this through. If you haven't voted yet, please do so.

Thank you very much.