Barça's UCL chances depend on making fewer stupid mistakes

The relaxed atmosphere surrounding Barcelona, ​​which includes their often short-sighted, hysterical media, their repressed and traumatized fans, as well as a management that has spent more time pumping water out of the boat than sailing forward in recent seasons, Leading to this defeat to Bayern Munich on Wednesday in the Champions League will send most of them back into full crisis mode, despite the excellent opening phase of this season.

That would of course be a nonsensical attitude.

For comparison, despite playing at home, Barça are the underdogs given their previous results. Their record so far against Germany's strongest and most relentless club is simply atrocious. Including the infamous 8-2 defeat that completely ruined the Quique Setien regime four years ago (remember, at the hands of current Barça coach Hansi Flick!), the Catalans' record against Bayern is: 15 games, 2 wins , 2 draws, 11 defeats, scored 16, conceded 37.

This is by far their worst and most humiliating record against a rival in Barcelona's entire 125-year history. Just to be clear: Barça's last four games against Bayern have been pure defeats, with no goals scored and 11 conceded.

If this run continues on Wednesday, Barcelona would have three points from a possible nine and, even with five games left, Red Star Belgrade away; Brest, homeland; Borussia Dortmund, away; Benfica, away; Atalanta, at home – Flick’s team would be in a precarious position.

After matchday two, Opta rated Barcelona as most likely to finish in 11th place – meaning there is no automatic qualification for the knockout rounds (only the top eight) and that there will be a play early next year -off draw comes. But they would be seeded, which would give them home advantage in the decisive game of this duel. A home defeat against Bayern and this assessment will change – quite negatively. They currently sit 16th in the Champions League based on goals scored and it is entirely possible that a defeat would leave them temporarily in the elimination zone.

Any team that finishes 17th to 24th in this new format will play their crucial second leg in the knockout round away from home – a disadvantage and the prospect of giving utter terror to league leaders Barcelona. She literally I can't afford not to reach at least the quarter-finals – a financial disaster.

But let's not get it to way ahead of us, because there is one surefire first step Barcelona can take to fight for a draw or an (unlikely) win over the Bundesliga leaders: stop making mindless decisions.

Two of their last three Champions League games ended in games they could and should have won, with terrible, damaging defeats after a player was sent off each time. Sent off for instinctive but stupid decisions.

One example was when Ronald Araújo (with Barcelona leading PSG 4-2 on aggregate in last season's quarter-finals) brought down Bradley Barcola after escaping from him. The other was when Eric García took a bad pass from Marc-André ter Stegen, robbed himself of the ball and almost instinctively dragged Monaco's Takumi Minamino to the ground. Red card again.

Neither decision was crystal clear and both came against Barcelona, ​​but both were completely inevitable in many ways. If they fall into the same traps against Bayern Munich this week, they won't just lose – they will be humbled.

If anything, Flick has his new team playing with an even more daring, advanced and high defensive line than homegrown Cruyff pupil Xavi Hernandez. It's remarkable to see. Whenever this version of Barcelona feels able, they literally defend on the halfway line. The ebb and flow of games means that their defense's average distance from the goal line is 51 meters – compared to 99% of other teams, this is a huge, magnificent canyon of green grass between the goalkeeper and his defensive teammates. The pitch they will play on against Bayern is 105 meters long, suggesting Flick's team will try not to defend far below that halfway line.

It is a tactic that aims to achieve several things. First, the entire action is focused on the opponent's ability to build from behind. This means that not only do Barcelona's pressing and harassment start high up the pitch, but they can also accumulate lots of bodies to push the zone where their opponent really doesn't want to lose the ball.

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It is a defensive line, which also means that if Barcelona win the ball back when an opposing breakaway group breaks up, the first offensive pass will be made on or above the halfway line – creating the immediate danger of a goal pass for Flick's team.

And finally, and this is something to keep in mind with the Bayern test: If your opponent sees the huge space behind the defensive line and wants to rush in/counterattack, then they need to have the calm and accuracy to distribute the ball. Well, and it's essential , that they have attacking players, not necessarily the center forward, who can outrun Barcelona's retreating defenders.

In the case of PSG, that was the case. Barcola benefited from Araújo's poor distribution, as Luis Enrique's plan of how and when to pressure the Uruguayan (selectively, forcing him to make poorly chosen passes) worked. Paris played 69 minutes at 11 against 10; It was crucial and decisive which team progressed, as an overall lead of 4-2 for Barcelona became a lead of 6-4 for PSG. This is a big turnaround – no wonder Ilkay Gündogan criticized Araújo for his poor decision-making.

When García received a red card in Monte Carlo for another last-man foul, the score was 0-0 and Barcelona proved amply over the next 81 minutes that they could have won 10-on-11. But her not. They were the better team and had better chances to score – but they were cornered by playing against a rival with an extra man and ultimately lost 2-1 to Monaco.

In both cases, the better percentage decision was to let the offensive player block his shot or attack rather than be sent off.

In modern football, especially in games in which both teams want to win (and not one of them is necessarily looking for a draw), with its ups and downs, with the enormous investments of sporting energy and with the constant need for nagging Avoiding fatigue If you make good decisions and concentrate in microsecond difficult moments, it's a terrible situation to be in when playing for a long period of time with a guy who is less strong than the other team. Barcelona have positioned themselves there twice in the last three games.

It is a completely different matter when Dani Carvajal's blatant and entirely intentional red card foul got him sent off and suspended against Germany in the European Championship semi-final, but almost certainly saved Spain from conceding a goal in injury time of extra time ( 125th minute) and led 2-1.

Flick will know that if Osasuna – where Barcelona lost their only game this season and conceded numerous ball-over-the-top chances – can completely tear his team's high defensive line to shreds, then Bayern can demonstrably do it on their day so too.

Vincent Kompany and his technical team will also have looked at how Alaves – despite being beaten 3-0 – could have scored three or four goals by getting behind Barcelona's defensive line (despite the Basque side being offside countless times) .

Flick has already confirmed that Barcelona goalkeeper Iñaki Peña will play on Wednesday and he looks shaky – like Bambi on the ice in my opinion. This is a player who is extremely low on confidence, particularly when blocking crosses in a crowded area and positioning himself well outside his penalty area when Barcelona are high up the pitch. He has to be the sweeper keeper.

The conclusion is: Bayern will definitely be able to break free from Barcelona's high and medium pressing, allowing them to release runners behind the high defensive line. At this point, Flick's defenders will be thinking, “I'm not really in favor of Peña making too many one-on-one saves in this situation.” And they'll be tempted to commit fouls that, if judged poorly, lead to red card situations.

They must resist that temptation, trust that their teammates can apply more pressure as the game progresses, and trust that Peña can perform as well as his work against Osasuna and Alaves was shockingly poor.

If Flick's men have a chance of beating Bayern, they simply cannot play with ten men for most of the game. A situation that is anything but unlikely.

Stay tuned, this game will teach us a lot about the Spanish league leaders ahead of Saturday's El Clásico against Real Madrid (Stream LIVE: 3:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+, US only). And about how difficult it will be to qualify for the Champions League in the new year.