Braves Series Preview: A Playoff Atmosphere

The Atlanta Braves won a title in 2021 and have had more than 100 consecutive season wins since then. But this year they have been hit by injuries, most notably an ACL injury to Ronald Acuña Jr. that ended his season in May. Star pitcher Spencer Strider and All-Star third baseman Austin Riley are also out, but the team has brought back several other key players.

Kansas City Royals (85-74) vs. Atlanta Braves (86-71) at Truist Park, Cumberland, GA

Royals: 4.59 runs scored/game (13th in MLB), 4.01 runs allowed/game (6th)

Braves: 4.38 runs scored/game (15th), 3.78 runs allowed/game (2nd)

The Braves got off to a great start at 26-13, but have only gone 60-58 since then. They are currently just one game behind the Mets and Diamondbacks for the final playoff spot in the National League. The race was thrown into chaos this week when the final two games of the Mets/Braves series were postponed to a doubleheader on Monday due to inclement weather caused by Hurricane Helene. The Braves need to beat the Mets to retain their head-to-head tiebreaker, but they also need to win these games against the Royals to ensure they don't get eliminated before they even get a chance to play the Mets. So the entire baseball world could be keeping its eyes on Friday's game between the Royals and Braves.

The Braves rank fourth in baseball in home runs and Marcell Ozuna's 39 home runs rank fifth in baseball. The Braves' hitters haven't done their damage at home, however, with only 39 percent of their home runs coming at Truist Park and they're averaging just 3.9 runs per game at home compared to 4.8 on the road.

Ramón Laureano has revived his career since signing with the Braves, hitting .319/.351/.550 against right-handed pitchers this year. Former Royals slugger Jorge Soler is hitting .237/.348/.489 with 9 home runs in 44 games since returning to the Braves, with whom he won the 2021 World Series MVP award.

Catcher Sean Murphy has been in a slump, hitting .119/.211/.224 in his last 19 games. Jarred Kelenic is hitting just .176/.247/.338 since the All-Star break. Former Royals speedster Whit Merrifield has hit .248/.348/.336 in 41 games since joining Atlanta.

The Braves stole the fewest bases in baseball and made the fourth fewest outs on the bases. Matt Olson is a Gold Glover at first base, Gio Urshela is a defensive upgrade at third base since signing, and Michael Harris III is great at center.

The starting pitching matchup is very fluid at this point. We know that Brady Singer will face Max Fried on Friday night. The Braves have not announced any starters for Saturday or Sunday, but manager Brian Snitker has said they will use Chris Sale if they face elimination in hopes of saving him for the Mets series.

Reynaldo López is ready to come off the injured list but could be used out of the box or for the Mets series. Rookie Spencer Wechselbach and veteran Charlie Morton were originally slated to be pitchers for this series, so I'm guessing they'll take over the rest of the series unless a trade is necessary. And of course, if the Royals clinch a playoff spot by Friday, they'll likely sideline Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans for the Wild Card round.

Fried is a three-time Gold Glove winner, was an All-Star this season and currently ranks ninth in fWAR among National League starting pitchers and seventh in ERA. He has gone six or more innings in 18 of his 28 starts, including his last five appearances. Lefties hit .321/.397/.455 against him, compared to .207/.273/.284 for righties. Opponents are hitting just .146 against his curveball and he has a 59 percent groundball rate, tops in baseball.

Originally a second-round pick out of Nebraska (he didn't attend Alex Gordon's wedding), Schewellenbach was great in his rookie season. He has a 2.59 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break. The right-hander has excellent command and hasn't issued more than three walks in a game all season. He throws a 96 mph four-seamer, ra slider, cutter, curve, splitter, and his sinker produces a 47 percent whiff rate.

Morton also relies heavily on a curve, throwing it 42 percent of the time, the most in baseball. The 40-year-old fared much better at home with a 3.54 ERA with Truist compared to 4.75 on the road. His groundball rate of 45.9 percent ranks seventh among starters. In five career starts against the Royals, he is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA.

The Braves have a very good bullpen with a 3.30 ERA, the second highest strikeout rate and the second lowest walk rate. They have the fewest performances on zero days off. Closer Raisel Iglesias has the third-most saves in the National League, converting 32 of 35 chances. He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 23.4 percent, the eighth-lowest among relievers. Joe Jiménez has one of the best sliders in the game, against which his opponents hit just .143 with a 40 percent whiff rate. Aaron Bummer has a 60 percent ground ball rate, the seventh highest among relievers. Left-hander Dylan Lee has a reverse split and lefties have hit him well with a .270/.270/.487 line.

With Hurricane Helene hitting the Southeast, baseball is a lower priority than everyone's safety and well-being. The Royals have arrived safely in Atlanta and the weather is clearing up so baseball can be played. Friday's game could be an intense duel with a lot at stake. The playoffs officially begin next week, but there's a playoff atmosphere this weekend.