Breaking down the Detroit Tigers' complete playoff picture with three games left

DETROIT – The final series of the regular season is upon us and the Detroit Tigers are on the verge of securing a spot in the playoffs.

Detroit just completed a blowout win over the Tampa Bay Rays, capped off with a thrilling comeback on Thursday afternoon.

The Tigers enter their final three games against the Chicago White Sox with their playoff fate in their own hands, a full 11 games above .500.

Here's a complete breakdown of the playoff picture heading into the weekend.

Minnesota Twins

It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that basically everything has gone the Tigers' way this month, even the things they can't control.

The Twins have lost two of three home games against the struggling Marlins this week, including Thursday night's crushing 13-inning loss.

Minnesota's loss dropped the Tigers' magic number to one, meaning they can claim victory as early as Friday night at Comerica Park if they can defeat Garrett Crochet and the White Sox.

The only hope for Minnesota now is for either the Tigers or Royals to finish the season 0-3. Since the Twins are in a head-to-head tiebreaker against both teams, they would advance to the playoffs in this scenario if they finished 3-0.

Kansas City Royals

Just when it looked like the Tigers would get past Kansas City and clinch the second wild card spot, the Royals found a way to get three tough wins in Washington to keep pace.

Both the Tigers and Royals enter the final series of the season with a record of 85-74. Even though Kansas City owns the tiebreaker, you have to like Detroit's chances of winning.

While the Tigers host the 120-loss White Sox this weekend, the Royals must travel to Atlanta for three games against the Braves.

Atlanta is currently one game behind the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks for the final two wild card spots in the National League. So there is even more at stake for them.

If the Royals can win two of three games in Atlanta, they have a good chance of retaining their second wild card spot. If not, the Tigers will simply have to win their final home series to claim victory.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles couldn't deal with Gerrit Cole on Thursday night, so the dream of the wild card round lives on for one more night at Comerica Park.

Baltimore leads Detroit by three games with three games remaining on the schedule. So the Tigers have to beat the White Sox and the Twins have to beat the Orioles to give Detroit the first wild card spot.

In the event that Kansas City also beats Atlanta, the Tigers would still win the tiebreaker due to a superior combined record against Kansas City and Baltimore.

• The Tigers won 6-7 against Kansas City and 4-2 against Baltimore (10-9 overall).

• The Royals won 7-6 against Detroit and 2-4 against Baltimore (9-10 overall).

• The Orioles went 2-4 against Detroit and 4-2 against Kansas City (6-6 overall).

So as long as you believe the Tigers can win a game against the White Sox this weekend, you should hope the Twins beat the Orioles.

Seattle Mariners

Yesterday we officially said goodbye to the Red Sox and Rays. Today the Mariners sail into the sunset.

With the Tigers and Royals winning on Thursday afternoon, the Mariners were officially eliminated from the playoffs because they do not have a tiebreaker.

New York Yankees

Remember the slim chance the Tigers could play in New York for the wild card round? That's gone now.

The Yankees clinched the AL East Division with their win over the Orioles on Thursday, so they get a bye.

Tiebreakers

Even though the Mariners are out of the playoffs, they could still prove relevant in a tiebreaker situation as they are three games behind the Tigers and Royals and tied with the Twins.

I think technically Tigers fans should be hoping for the Mariners to beat the Oakland A's. In the unlikely event that both the Tigers and Royals are defeated this weekend and the Twins lose at least once, the Tigers would lose a tiebreaker to the Royals but a hypothetical three-team tiebreaker to the Royals and Mariners win.

This is how all possible draws would end:

• Tigers and Orioles: Tigers win the tiebreaker.

• Tigers and Royals: Royals win the tiebreaker.

• Tigers and Gemini: Twins win the tiebreaker.

• Tigers and Mariners: Tigers win the tiebreaker.

• Tigers, Royals and Gemini: Twins win tiebreaker, Royals are second.

• Tigers, Royals and Mariners: Tigers win the tiebreaker.

• Tigers, Gemini and Mariners: Twins win tiebreaker, Tigers are second.

• Tigers, Royals, Twins and Mariners: Twins win tiebreaker, Tigers are second.

• Tigers, Royals and Orioles: Tigers win the tiebreaker.

What has already been decided

The last two division titles were won on Thursday night when the Yankees and Dodgers defeated their respective second-place teams, putting them out of reach.

Here's what we know for sure about the playoffs:

• The Yankees and Guardians will have the AL's two byes in the first round.

• The Astros are the No. 3 seed in the AL and will host the third wild card team in the first round.

• The Orioles have secured a wild card spot.

• The Dodgers and Phillies will get the two first-round byes in the NL.

• The Brewers are No. 3 in the Netherlands and will host the third wildcard team in the first round.

• The Padres have secured a wild card spot.

The Yankees have a one-game lead over Cleveland as the AL's top seed and also own the direct tiebreaker. New York hosts the Pirates and Cleveland hosts the Astros this weekend.

The Dodgers have a one-game lead over the Phillies for the top spot in the NL, but the Phillies own the direct tiebreaker. The Dodgers travel to Colorado this weekend and the Phillies travel to Washington.

Two of the Royals, the Tigers and Twins, make the playoffs and one is left out.

Two of the Mets, the Diamondbacks and Braves, will make the playoffs and one will be left out.

Since the Mets-Braves games were rained out the last two days, those teams return to Atlanta for a doubleheader on Monday. Monday was supposed to be a day off between the end of the regular season and the wild card round.

The Mets are in Milwaukee this weekend for three games against the Brewers, while the Diamondbacks host the Padres and the Braves host the Royals.

Conclusion

Everything is over except for the champagne baths. The Tigers just need a win over the worst team in the league to make this unimaginable run to the postseason a reality.

The Tigers hope to get the win on Friday or Saturday so they don't have to rely on Tarik Skubal on the final day of the regular season. That would allow them to save him for the first game of the wild card round.

Here's how I would rank the possible remaining outcomes in order of likelihood.

1. The Tigers get the second wild card spot and play in Baltimore.

2. The Tigers receive the third wild card spot and play in Houston.

3. The Tigers get the first wild card spot and host the Orioles.

4. The Tigers miss the playoffs.

I put the Tigers missing the playoffs under the odds of getting a home series. It seems more likely that the Twins and Tigers win their series this weekend than that the White Sox upset the Tigers three times in a row.

Could the White Sox win a game or two? Secure. Friday is Crochet on the mound, and there's a chance Sunday means nothing to the Tigers.

But the way the Tigers have been playing, there's no reason to think they won't find a way to get the deal done.