Breaking down the NLCS Game 3 pitching matchup

After a 7-3 win on Monday night, the New York Mets have evened the series and are now heading into three straight home games at Citi Field against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sean Manaea continued his dominance against a strong Dodger lineup that scored nine runs in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series. He gave up just two earned runs in five innings, twice beating the odds on National League MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts decided to throw a bullpen game on Monday afternoonin which the Mets saw five different relievers over the course of nine innings. The Mets were able to strike out Landon Knack in the top half of the second inning thanks to a grand slam by Mark Vientos that tied the game early. They were able to hold on Lead the series and tie it back to Flushing.

The Mets look to take control in Game 3 in front of their home crowd on Wednesday night. Here are the pitching matchups for Game 3…

Luis Severino. Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Luis Severino

Luis Severino hasn't been as dominant as Sean Manaea or Jose Quintana this postseason. Still, to his credit, he battled through two respectable starts against the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies. Severino has a career postseason ERA of 5.01, where he had some nightmare starts with the New York Yankees, but in his two postseason starts with the Mets, he has managed to throw six innings with a total of ten strikeouts.

Severino has managed to find his way with the Mets this season, relying on his fastball like he did in 2018 and 2022. In 2024, his fastball run rate is in the 90th percentile among qualified pitchers, and he has been able to strike out batters with his new sweeper. The right-hander uses his sweeper just 17.2% of the time, but has a whiff percentage of 38.6%, with batters batting .139 against the pitch and using it as a laid-off pitch 24.3% of the time. To put that in perspective, Severino's put-away pitch in 2023 was his sinker, where he only had a 20.8% whiff percentage.

Mookie Betts is a lifetime .324 hitter against Severino (11-34) with one home run, four doubles, four runs batted in and seven strikeouts. The only two other position players with more than 10 at-bats against Severino are Teoscar Hernandez and Kevin Kiermaier, both of whom are batting under .200. Severino, on the other hand, only has gave up two starts against the Dodgers (none this season) and seven runs in six innings of work.

While Severino has reestablished some dominance this year with a 3.91 ERA in the regular season, he has given up the most home runs in the starting rotation (23) and the second-most walks (60). Walks have always killed the Mets' starters, but Severino needs to keep the ball in the park and attack the Dodgers lineup.

Walker Buhler

Walker Buehler is expected to start for the Dodgers on Wednesday night after pitching a bullpen game on Monday afternoon. Buehler got off to a terrible start against the San Diego Padres in the NLDS, where he gave up six earned runs in five innings of work, but given the poor start, he has a great track record in the postseason. In 16 career postseason starts, Buehler has a 3.40 ERA with 101 strikeouts in 84 2/3 innings.

Buehler has a deep mix based on seven different pitches and uses his sweeper primarily to throw batters away. Although he only uses his sweeper 8.2% of the time, it is his best swing and miss pitch, with a whiff percentage of 29.4% and a put away percentage of 24.5%. Even with his seven-pitch arsenal, Buehler uses his fastball 29% of the time, and that's where hitters have hurt him. He posted a .342 batting average on that pitch, which correlates to a .321 batting average on the first pitch of an at-bat.

Pete Alonso, a lifetime .357 hitter against Buehler (5 for 14), with four home runs, eight batted-ins and one strikeout, has faced Buehler the second most times. Jesse Winker, a lifetime .267 hitter against Buehler (4 for 15) with two home runs, three runs batted in and two strikeouts, has the most experience against Buehler.

The Mets have struggled with starting pitching throughout the postseason and thrived when opposing teams are forced to go to their bullpen, but they had a unique opportunity to jump on Buehler as he thrives with the fastball and the first pitch thrown at bats.

FINAL THOUGHTS

After tying the series, the Mets can take their fate back into their own hands with a win on Wednesday night. Luis Severino, in his first postseason start at Citi Field, has a great opportunity to shut out a Dodger lineup on a cold evening in New York City. He has proven his dominance to Flushing fans this season with a 2.96 ERA at home.

While a hot start is always ideal, the Mets will need to be extremely aggressive against Buehler. An aggressive approach not only leads to success, But the Dodgers are coming off a bullpen game, and even with an off day, arriving in their bullpen will completely change Dave Roberts' pitching strategy for the rest of the series.

It's pretty simple for the Mets. A win in Game 3 allows you to control your own destiny. Two more games follow at Citi Field.