Bryan Norcross: System should pay attention to possible developments at the end of the week

Updated at 10 a.m. ET on Sunday, October 13, 2024

The Atlantic Tropical Disturbance, which the National Hurricane Center has officially named Invest 94L, has a well-defined circulation, but no thunderstorms rotate around its center. It plows westward through a very dry atmosphere. Moderate high-altitude winds drive the entrained moisture south.

Around the middle of the week, the environment over the tropical Atlantic becomes somewhat more development-friendly. The National Hurricane Center believes there is a low chance of at least one tropical depression forming as the system moves toward the northeastern Caribbean, but if the disturbance finds a nose of moisture, something could be in motion.

Computer forecast models agree that the disturbance will occur near Puerto Rico or surrounding islands by the end of the week. Some of the computer forecasts suggest that the atmospheric environment after this period could be more conducive to a tropical depression or storm. However, the possible traces and intensities are varied, so we will continue to monitor the situation.

A strong fall cold front will move through Florida this week. This means the continental US should remain protected from tropical systems at least until next weekend.

Everyone in the Northeast Caribbean should plan to stay tuned this week until we see how this system develops.