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Can Colin Allred win against Ted Cruz in Texas? The Democrats hope so.

Posted on by Vanessa
Can Colin Allred win against Ted Cruz in Texas? The Democrats hope so.

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Will Democrats wake up to a blue miracle in a red state this November?

That's the question weighing on the party as former NFL linebacker and Rep. Colin Allred takes on Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in the highly anticipated Texas Senate race. Cruz, a two-term Trump-backed incumbent, has held the seat since 2013.

And Democrats view the seat as one they could potentially flip to retain control of the Senate and have poured millions of dollars into the race. Vice President Kamala Harris is also coming to Houston on Friday to meet with Allred and discuss abortion rights. Famous pop star Beyoncé is expected to perform.

Although Republicans are confident Cruz will prevail again this year, some polls suggest it will be a close race with both candidates virtually dead less than two weeks before Election Day, Nov. 5. An Emerson College poll released Oct. 23 found that 48% of likely Texas voters support Cruz, while 47% support Allred. Cook Political Report changed the race from likely Republican to lean Republican.

Other polls show Cruz leading by a narrow margin – even though former President Donald Trump leads the state by seven or more points in the presidential race.

In the final home stretch of the race, both candidates are trying to woo undecided and middle-of-the-road voters, portray themselves as nonpartisan and defend their immigration record (a top issue in the state).

“Overall, in my opinion, the race remained very stable. “It was within reach, but Allred was unable to close the gap,” said Mark Jones, a professor in the political science department at Rice University.

The Cruz campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

It's a different time, says Allred

The only time a Democrat came close to Cruz was in his last re-election in 2018. Beto O'Rourke, the challenger, had received 48.3% of the vote, while Cruz received 50.9% of the vote.

This marked a stark contrast to Cruz's 2012 campaign, in which he won with 16% of the vote against his Democratic challenger Paul Sadler.

But Allred told USA TODAY in a phone interview that he is running a different campaign against a different candidate than 2018's Ted Cruz.

He cited Cruz's position on abortion, his decision to vote against certifying the 2020 presidential election votes for Joe Biden, and his trip to Cancun in 2021 during one as reasons why Cruz has lost popularity among Texans Texas winter storm.

Katherine Fischer, who worked on O'Rourke's 2018 campaign, said the Senate seat was viewed as a “hot opportunity” at the time, so O'Rourke pursued an active campaign strategy, visiting all 254 Texas counties to win it To drive races that are less hopeless and to increase your popularity. The result shows that Cruz is in a vulnerable position, she said.

Allred has focused primarily on winning voters in suburban or urban areas, Fischer noted. His approach includes addressing selected target groups – including moderates.

The state's changing demographics and increasing immigration from minority groups could give him a slight advantage.

But as the Biden-Harris administration takes power, Allred is also under greater scrutiny as polls show voters are dissatisfied with Democrats' handling of key issues like immigration and the economy.

Allred defended himself, saying the race is not about political parties but about the candidates and that his record is different from his opponent's. The two went head-to-head in a combative debate on October 15, beating each other's records and arguing over issues including transgender rights, abortion and immigration.

Trump's lead is likely to carry Cruz to the finish line despite fundraising efforts

Senate Democrats made a last-minute investment in the race to give Allred a boost. The Senate Majority PAC, a group allied with Sen. Chuck Schumer, announced a $5 million TV investment last week, following multimillion-dollar investments in digital and radio.

Last month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a multimillion-dollar investment in Senate races in Texas and Florida.

Compared to Allred, Cruz has not received as much support from his own party.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC allied with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, has not invested in the Texas race at all. Cruz has been critical of McConnell, even saying at one point that he should lose his leadership role in 2015.

But even with fundraising, Democrats still face an uphill battle, said Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist who served as an adviser on Cruz's 2018 Senate bid.

“I think in the end, Trump's lead in Texas will probably get Cruz over the finish line,” he said.

Allred and Cruz describe themselves as nonpartisan

As both candidates tour the Lone Star State, they are trying to portray themselves as nonpartisan. Cruz, in particular, was considered one of the most partisan members of the Senate during both terms.

He voted against the bipartisan immigration bill and a Democratic bill on access to in vitro fertilization. Both bills were supported by Allred.

Despite being elected by the bipartisan Common Ground Committee as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, Allred has taken a vocal stance on abortion rights. Earlier this month, he released an ad featuring Kate Cox, a Texan who gained national attention after she left the state to get an abortion.

But he has also taken a stand against democratic positions. He voted to condemn Biden's handling of the border and called on the Biden administration in an editorial to end the pause on approving new liquefied natural gas export projects.

Even if Allred doesn't win, it may not be a total loss for Democrats. Jones indicated that his presence on the ticket is enough for Democrats to potentially pick up seats in other local races in Texas.

Fischer, the director of the Texas Majority PAC, whose goal is to elect Democrats to statewide office, said her group will continue to work to unseat Cruz in the next election cycle, including raising money and increasing voter turnout.

“Win or lose, it’s not over for Texas Democrats,” she said.

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