CNN polls: Harris and Trump are in tight races in Arizona and Nevada as the pool of persuadable voters shrinks

CNN
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In the critical Southwest battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are nearly neck and neck in the race for the White House, according to new CNN polls from SSRS. The results come at a time when large numbers of voters say they have already cast their ballots, and the pool of those willing to change their minds is shrinking.

According to the poll, Harris is at 48% among likely voters in Arizona, while Trump is at 47%. In Nevada, 48% of likely voters support Trump and 47% support Harris. These 1-point margins are within each poll's margin of sampling error, so a clear leader cannot be determined in any of the states.

The polls show that voters' views largely depend on who would do a better job on key issues, while neither candidate has convinced a critical mass of voters that he is the better choice based on a number of key characteristics. Voters in both states have, at best, narrow preferences about which candidate cares more about people like them, shares their vision of the country or would put the country's interests above their own interests.

The Nevada poll suggests the situation there has changed little since late August, but in Arizona the new results suggest a shift in Harris' favor. The new poll shows Harris making gains among core Democratic constituencies such as women, Latino voters and younger voters. The shift is particularly focused on women, who now favor Harris by a 16-point margin, while men continue to favor Trump by a 14-point margin.

Harris' lead among women is slightly smaller in Nevada (51% support her, 46% support Trump). This narrower margin is largely due to the relative lack of a gender gap among likely white voters in the state: Trump has a 15-point lead over Harris among white men (56% to 41%) and one among white women 12 point lead (54% to 42%).

Likely Hispanic voters in Nevada are roughly evenly split between Harris and Trump (48% support Harris, 47% support Trump). However, Harris has a significant lead among voters under 35, with 53% supporting her versus 39% for Trump.

Independent voters in both states are roughly evenly split between Harris and Trump. In Arizona, 45% support Trump while 43% support Harris, a 6-point improvement in support for the vice president since August. In Nevada, likely independent voters are split 46% Harris and 43% Trump, about the same as in August.

The Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate in each state appear to have the upper hand. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is outperforming Republican Kari Lake 51% to 43% among likely voters in the race to replace retiring independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and in Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is leading her reelection campaign against the Republican challenger Sam Brown is at 50% to 41% of likely voters.

As voting continues, an Arizona vote to enshrine a fundamental right to abortion in the state's constitution is gaining broad support, with 60% of likely voters saying they would vote for it and just 39% saying they would oppose it.

Both states have robust early and mail-in voting, and the poll found 55% of likely voters in Arizona and 42% in Nevada say they have already voted. In both states, more registered Republicans have cast votes than registered Democrats. In Arizona, that still means Harris has the advantage in votes saved (53% of those who said they have already voted support her, compared to 44% for Trump), but in Nevada those who have already voted are leaning , in favor of the former president (52% Trump to 46% Harris).

Although both candidates are making late campaign stops in Arizona and Nevada, more than 9 in 10 likely voters in both states say they have already decided who they will support. In both states, 92% say they are incarcerated and 8% may be persuaded.

Presumptive voters in Arizona and Nevada are sharply divided when it comes to weighing the importance of candidates' issue positions versus their leadership skills and approach to the presidency, with just over half prioritizing issue positions ( 53% in Nevada, 52% in Arizona). ) and almost half about leadership qualities (47% in Nevada, 48% in Arizona).

Harris supporters in both states largely say leadership is more important (55% in Nevada, 54% in Arizona), while most Trump supporters (59% in Nevada, 58% in Arizona) say they agree with the views of the Prioritize candidates on the issues subject matter.

In both states, the polls now show familiar divisions over which issues each candidate is more comfortable with, reflecting trends that were broadly consistent in state and federal polls this fall. Voters are likely to trust Trump more than Harris when it comes to immigration (by 14 points in Arizona and 15 points in Nevada), the economy (by 11 points in Arizona, 9 points in Nevada) and foreign policy (by 8 points in Arizona). , 7) goes points in Nevada). Harris is more trusted on abortion and reproductive rights in both states (by 16 points in Arizona and 21 points in Nevada) and also has a 5-point lead on protecting democracy in Arizona, with voters roughly evenly split in Nevada (46% trust Harris). , 45% Trump).

In Arizona, voters are likely divided over which candidate cares more about people like them (45% say Harris does, 41% say Trump). But the vice president has the advantage of being more honest and trustworthy than Trump (44% to 35%), and of putting the country's interests slightly ahead of her own (46% say Harris, 41% Trump). The former president has a slim chance of bringing about the change the country needs (45% Trump, 40% Harris) and sharing voters' vision of the country (44% Trump, 39% Harris).

In Nevada, likely voters give Harris the edge when it comes to honesty (44% to 36%) and caring for people like her (46% to 40%), while they say Trump is more likely to do the necessary things brought about change (47% to 41%). They are roughly evenly divided about which candidate would put the country's interests above their own (46% say Harris, 44% Trump) and who shares their vision (44% each).

About a fifth of voters in every state say neither Harris nor Trump can be described as honest and trustworthy, higher than the shares who disapprove of both candidates for other reasons or personal characteristics.

In both states, confidence has increased since the end of August that ballots are being cast and counted correctly. About 8 in 10 likely voters in Nevada (81%, up 10 points from August) and three-quarters in Arizona (76%, up 8 points) say they are at least somewhat confident that votes will be cast and counted correctly . This increase comes more from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (up 19 points in Nevada, 12 points in Arizona) than from Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters.

Despite these gains, Republicans and Republican-leaning voters in both states still have far less confidence in the electoral process than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. In Arizona, 69% of likely Democratic-leaning voters say they are very confident in the system, but only 21% of Republican-leaning voters say the same. The gap is even wider in Nevada, where 71% of Democratic-leaning likely voters are very confident, compared to 16% of Republican-leaning likely voters.

Interviews were conducted online and by telephone from October 21 to October 26, 2024, with registered voters, including 781 voters in Arizona and 683 in Nevada. Likely voters include all registered voters in the survey, weighted by their predicted likelihood of voting in this year's election. The results among likely voters in Arizona have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points; Among likely voters in Nevada, it is at 4.6 points.