College Football Picks for Week 5: Two underdogs and three overall picks

As the 2024 college football season enters its fifth week, the landscape continues to evolve, with surprise upsets, standout performances and shifting power dynamics. This week's slate is sure to provide even more exciting action and potentially shift the conference standings as we approach the halfway point of the regular season.

As powerhouse programs continue to dominate the headlines, savvy fans and bettors can often make a point of identifying promising underdogs and high-profile affairs.

This week we'll highlight two underdogs poised to surprise, as well as three games that could lead to offensive shootouts.

All lines are current at the time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET.

Double Trouble: Two outsiders who want to defy all odds

Northern Illinois Huskies (+7) at NC State Wolfpack

Northern Illinois boasts one of the best offensive lines in the country. With five experienced seniors, this veteran presence has contributed significantly to the Huskies' strong running game.

Antario Brown, a returning first-team All-MAC honoree, leads the Huskies' backfield with 241 rushing yards, including 172 in the last two games. The running game can allow NIU to control the clock, potentially weakening NC State's defense as the game progresses. NIU ranks seventh nationally in time of possession, and as a 7-point underdog, that could be a deciding factor.

The Huskies' defense has also shown promise. They forced two interceptions against Notre Dame and held Buffalo to just 184 yards of total offense, their best defensive performance since October 2019. For NIU to cover the spread or potentially upset NC State, the Huskies will have to disrupt the Wolfpack's passing game through creative blitz packages or by winning individual matchups on the line.

While NC State's offense looked competitive against Clemson, scoring 35 points, it's worth noting that 21 of those points came in the fourth quarter when the game was already decided. There are still weaknesses in the Wolfpack's offense that NIU could exploit.

Given Northern Illinois' strengths in the running game, time of possession and defensive potential, the Huskies should have a solid chance to not only cover the 7-point lead, but potentially win the game outright.

Old Dominion Monarchs (+9) at Bowling Green Falcons

Old Dominion's offense showed promise, and that was especially evident in their must-win game against the South Carolina Gamecocks, where they scored 19 points. The potential return of quarterback Grant Wilson could be game-changing. If Wilson can build on his early season performance while minimizing turnovers, the Monarchs could keep the game within range.

The Monarchs' offensive strength lies in their running game. Running back Aaron Young has been a standout player, amassing 206 yards and a touchdown so far this season. The ground attack could prove crucial against Bowling Green's defense, which ranks 13th against the run. A strong rushing performance from Young could help Old Dominion control the clock and limit Bowling Green's offensive possessions.

The Monarchs' defense was impressive, especially when it came to turnovers. They have recorded five interceptions in just three games, which could be an important factor against Bowling Green's pass-heavy offense. Bowling Green quarterback Connor Bazelak has the same number of interceptions (3) as he has passing touchdowns.

Points galore: The point total in three games will skyrocket

Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers OVER 55.5 points

Both teams tend to find the end zone, with Indiana ranking second in touchdowns scored and Maryland 31st. Touchdown efficiency is crucial to reaching the over as it is more impactful than settling for field goals.

The quarterbacks contribute significantly to the offensive explosiveness of both teams. Billy Edwards Jr. of Maryland and Kurtis Rourke of Indiana rank third and seventh nationally, respectively, in graduation rate.

Rourke has thrived in Indiana's program alongside a strong and talented group of receivers that may be the best in the Big Ten outside of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. provide big-play ability, Myles Price provides a high-volume option, and Miles Cross serves as a reliable target due to his connection to Rourke dating back to their time at Ohio University. The variety of receiving styles allows the Hoosiers to attack defenses in different ways, making their passing game more dynamic and difficult to defend. In fact, the Hoosiers' offense is on a record-breaking pace with 202 points in four games, the most in program history over four games.

When betting on an over, it's helpful to have this kind of offensive efficiency against at least one vulnerable defense that can be exploited. Maryland's defense was vulnerable to the pass; The Terps allowed 363 passing yards and 9.6 yards per pass attempt against Michigan State in Week 2.

I'm going for the total, not Indiana's coverage (-6.5), because even though the Hoosiers' pass defense ranks 10th, the team has yet to face a top-50 passing attack. Edwards has 25 deep-ball attempts, fourth-most in the FBS, and Maryland's passing attack should be the first real test of Indiana's secondary.

Over 55.5 points looks achievable in this game, with both teams expected to contribute significantly to the overall result.

Minnesota Golden Gophers and Michigan Wolverines OVER 35 points

This total has changed significantly, falling from 39.5 to 35.

While Minnesota's defense was generally solid, they struggled against the run, allowing five touchdowns on the ground this season. Minnesota's rush defense was exposed in the team's recent 31-14 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes. as Hawkeyes RB Kaleb Johnson rushed for 206 yards and three touchdowns.

Michigan showcased a revitalized rushing attack against the USC Trojans in Week 4 with three rushing scores. The Wolverines are poised to take advantage of a weak Golden Gophers run defense with Kalel Mullings posting a game-changing performance of 159 yards and two touchdowns.

With such a low total, the ground game could be crucial for Michigan against Minnesota. Explosive plays become even more significant, and it wouldn't be out of the question for the Wolverines to reach or exceed the 30-point mark on their own, with Minnesota potentially contributing enough points to push the total to over 35 points.

Best bet for Week 5: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at North Texas Mean Green OVER 68.5 points

The Mean Green have a strong passing offense, averaging 327 yards per game (9th in the country) and are the sixth-best passing offense according to PFF. Quarterback Chandler Morris has shown good arm strength: 39% of his passes were thrown from medium to long distances (over 10 yards) and eight of his eleven total touchdowns also came from this distance.

Both teams are struggling defensively, setting the stage for a possible shootout. Tulsa's secondary was one of the worst in the country, ranking 112th, and the Golden Hurricane also boasts one of the worst-scoring defenses, allowing a total of 17 touchdowns (five of them passing against Oklahoma State) to just one field goal.

North Texas ranks 119th in touchdowns allowed, and while the Mean Green have a dynamic and versatile offense capable of challenging defenses in a variety of ways, they also take an “outscore over defense” approach to winning games. -Approach.

It's all a perfect mix of ingredients for a high-scoring affair, making the over an attractive option in a game that could well reach the 90-point mark. This is the highest game total in Week 5. Life is too short to bet on the under.