Could Ted Cruz actually lose in Texas?

In Texas, Senator Ted Cruz is facing a surprisingly tough election campaign, as recent polls seem to indicate that his Democratic opponent is gaining ground.

Texas has historically been a Republican state. Every Republican candidate has held a seat in the Senate since 1990 and in the governor's office since 1994. Texas has not voted to send a Democrat to the White House since 1976, and former President Donald Trump is on track to win Texas again in November.

But recent polls have shown that incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz may have difficulty defending his seat against his opponent, U.S. Representative Colin Allred. The most recent poll in the state, conducted by Morning Consult between Sept. 9 and 18, found Allred leading Cruz by one percentage point for the first time, 45 percent to 44 percent among 2,716 likely voters. His lead was within the poll's margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.

“For the first time in this race, we're one point ahead of Ted Cruz, according to a new poll. I don't know about you, but I'm fired up and ready to WIN! We have 47 days, let's get it done, Texas,” Allred said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

While this is the only poll that gives Allred a lead, other polls have shown Cruz narrowly ahead of the former NFL linebacker. A recently released national poll from Emerson College and The Hill, conducted between September 3 and 5, showed Cruz ahead by 4 points – a lead that is just outside the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percent.

Brett Loyd, president and CEO of Texas-based polling firm The Bullfinch Group, said: Newsweek that anyone can win the state.

“The race for the Senate seat in Texas is a gamble. It should always have been viewed as a gamble. That's not to say Cruz will lose, but you should view the race as a game where anyone can win,” he said.

Newsweek has emailed the Cruz and Allred campaigns for comment.

The Cook Political Report still rates the race for the Texas Senate seat as a likely Republican seat. The RealClearPolitics poll tracker has Cruz ahead by 6 points on average. Still, some Republicans are still concerned about how close the polls have been in this race so far.

“What the hell is going on with the Senate race in Texas? I think I know… and I think I know his name… it's time to bring in some real pros to save @tedcruz,” Donald Trump's campaign manager Chris LaCivita wrote in a recent post on X.

The Democrats' donations in the state could also be a cause for concern among Republicans.

Allred entered the race in May 2023, so his fundraising fell short of Cruz's lead. In total, the Texas Republican has raised $59.6 million, while Allred has raised about $38.4 million so far, according to data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC).

Cruz's campaign team also has more money in its pocket: FEC data shows that he has $12.7 million in cash on hand, compared to Allred's $10.5 million.

Still, fundraising numbers appear to show liberal donors motivated by the chance to oust Cruz, who narrowly defeated opponent Beto O'Rourke in 2018 with 214,921 votes out of over 8.3 million cast.

“For this class of senators, the six closest races in 2018 (in that order) were Florida, Arizona, Texas, West Virginia, Montana and Nevada. (Joe) Manchin's resignation means West Virginia is out, but otherwise these are the states people should be talking about first when it comes to 'close races.' And Texas has changed so much since 2018; to think Cruz is safe is foolish,” Brett Loyd said Newsweek.

“The argument I keep hearing from people in Texas is, 'That's never going to happen; a Democrat will never win here statewide.' That argument is trite. States change, populations shift. Cruz won by 2 points six years ago in a state that was getting more and more Democratic every year. To say the race isn't neck-and-neck because 'that doesn't happen in Texas' is nonsense. Cruz could win, but this race is absolutely neck-and-neck,” Loyd added.

However, Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, disagreed, saying: Newsweek that it is “highly unlikely” that Cruz will lose the state in November.

While he acknowledged that the Texas election would be “more exciting,” he noted that the Morning Consult poll giving Allred a lead is the only one this election cycle to do so.

“Cruz's close race against O'Rourke in 2018 came in an election year when the Democratic candidates had the advantage, and whether 2024 ultimately proves advantageous for either party remains to be seen. Republicans still have an advantageous position in Texas, but that advantage is clearly fading, and the electoral environment is an important factor in determining how close the election ultimately turns out to be,” he added.

“But barring unforeseen circumstances, I think it's highly unlikely that Allred will beat Cruz in this election, although I still expect a close race.”