D-backs-Giants preview: Magic number, decisive scenarios

The Arizona Diamondbacks return to Chase Field for their final home game of the regular season with a chance to secure a postseason spot for the second consecutive year.

The San Francisco Giants come to town Monday through Wednesday before Arizona has Thursday off and hosts the San Diego Padres for the final three games of the weekend. Arizona has won six of 10 games against the Giants this year and has won its last two series in this matchup.

The D-backs are fresh off a crucial series win over the National League Central champions, winning three of four games against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. However, the D-backs were in great position to take the series 8-0 in the third inning on Sunday, and the Brewers stormed back to win 10-9.

The Giants officially dropped out of the Wild Card race last week, but have been in good form recently, winning five of their last six games against the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals. All-Star starter Logan Webb is scheduled to start this week and has a chance to be a spoiler against a division opponent.

What is the Diamondbacks' magic number?

As of Monday morning, the D-backs and the New York Mets are tied 87-69 for the second NL Wild Card spot, with New York leading due to the tiebreaker.

The Atlanta Braves (85-71) are two games back and also have a tiebreaker against Arizona, while the Padres have built a three-game lead over the D-backs and Mets.

The Mets and Braves play each other three times starting Tuesday, so the fact that their series was rescheduled to coincide with Arizona's makes things a little more complicated.

Arizona's magic win total is four with six games to go. It helps that two of their Wild Card opponents are playing each other this week. Four wins would give Arizona 91 wins. Atlanta can only get there by finishing 6-0 and eliminating the Mets.

The earliest Arizona can secure a postseason spot is Wednesday night, with a sweep of the Giants and two losses by Atlanta.

Diamondbacks-Giants: Possible starters

Monday: Arizona LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (3-3, 5.09) vs. San Francisco RHP Hayden Birdsong (4-5, 4.74)

Tuesday: Arizona RHP Brandon Pfaadt (10-9, 4.66) vs. San Francisco RHP Logan Webb (12-10, 3.58)

Wednesday: Arizona RHP Zac Gallen (13-6, 3.74) vs. San Francisco RHP Mason Black (1-4, 5.88)

Rodriguez and Pfaadt are each off to their best starts of the season. Rodriguez threw 6.1 innings with two earned runs and 11 strikeouts on Wednesday in Colorado, and Pfaadt followed with seven innings with one run and 12 punch outs on Thursday in Milwaukee. Pfaadt struck out seven batters in a row, which is a club record.

Gallen's start on Wednesday would put him in line for Game 1 of a possible Wild Card Series next week. He would not have a full four days of rest until the season finale on Sunday.

The D-backs will be missing Giants left-handed star Blake Snell, although they did throw out the 2023 Cy Young winner in one inning earlier this month.

However, Webb has always been a challenge for Arizona, with a 2.51 ERA in 11 starts against the D-backs in his career – including seven scoreless innings in April. The right-hander has been more vulnerable than usual of late, however, with a 6.58 ERA and a .306 opponent batting average in his last five starts.

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