Donald Trump could win on election day. That shouldn't be possible.

In less than 24 hours, the first polling places on the East Coast will open their doors to Election Day voters participating in the 2024 presidential election. The latest polls suggest that about half of the ballots counted Tuesday night will be for former President Donald Trump. It's also quite likely that figuring out whether he or Vice President Kamala Harris will be in the Oval Office in January will be a slow and torturous process.

It is not the possibility of delay that is contributing most to the unease that millions of Americans feel as Election Day approaches. There is actually tension about the outcome. The 2024 election may not be nearly as close as it seems, especially with Trump's name on the ballot for the third consecutive time. It is disheartening, to say the least, that we as a country find ourselves in this situation again four years after Trump was expelled from the White House.

It is a situation that would have been unimaginable in the immediate aftermath of Trump's chaotic departure. I haven't forgotten the slow, terrible realization that Trump would not leave office willingly. I watched as his various sins and transgressions were exposed to the public. And I watched him fight his way back into the center of American politics, ready to pose an even greater threat than before.

What makes Trump's resurgence even more troubling are the glimmers of hope that are everywhere. Six months after the attack, the House Select Committee began investigating Trump's efforts to undermine democracy on January 6. His public hearings in the summer and fall of 2022 described in astonishing detail the extent of his and his allies' efforts to keep him in office, which led to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

The prime-time case against Trump may have been a moment in which the country accepted that Trump was incapable of returning to power. When Republicans underperformed in the midterm elections this year despite Trump's kingmaker game, it may have been a sign that he had lost his political edge. Instead, he defiantly announced his candidacy just a few days later. And nothing – including a series of lawsuits against him – has slowed him as he steamrolled a field of potential successors at the top of the ticket.

In retrospect, it seems naïve to imagine that the four indictments filed during 2023 would prevent him from running in the primary. In each case, Trump tried to use the allegations to his advantage by fundraising and portraying himself as a victim. In all but one of these cases, Trump has managed to evade justice, or at least delay it. His delaying tactics resulted in three of those cases stalling, aided by a compliant Supreme Court majority, a new federal judge he appointed and the personal antics of prosecutors in Georgia. He was convicted of 34 counts in Manhattan earlier this year, but was still able to postpone sentencing until after the election. There is no question that if Trump wins, he will use the presidency to cloak himself in the trappings of office to avoid punishment in New York, to end the Justice Department's prosecution of him and to end any chance of one Process will be wiped out in Georgia.

Underpinning all of this is the disturbing fact that Trump should not have been running in the first place. Had he been found guilty in his second impeachment trial, he would have been barred from running. And his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol should have triggered the Insurrection Clause of the 14th Amendment and disqualified him from holding public office. In each case, it was upheld first by Senate Republicans and then by a unanimous Supreme Court.

It didn't have to be like this. Although it's hard to remember now, there was an all-too-brief moment when it seemed like the tide had finally turned against Trumpism. January 6th really rocked the GOP. But even though Congress certified President Joe Biden's victory that evening and many of the rioters faced punishment, it appears the attackers won in the long run. Conservatism, particularly as expressed in the MAGA movement, is an ideology of fear: fear of the unknown, fear of the other, fear of what will happen if the balance of power is tipped against those who have been there for so long are at the top.

For decades, elected Republicans have feared their own voters and leaned to the right, hoping to avoid a primary by a more extreme candidate. By demonstrating their willingness to use violence against members of their own party, Trump's supporters stoked a new fear among the officials they represent: not just fear for their jobs, but also fear for their physical safety. With damn few exceptions, I have seen the Republican Party, cowed and cowered, rush to defend the indefensible as Trump regains his footing right at the Republicans' throats.

It's a sign of Trump's dominance that he hasn't bothered to hide the ugliness of what he wants to do in a second term. While his campaign has publicly shied away from its connection to the politically toxic Project 2025, it's not as if the plans and priorities Trump himself has expressed are any less dangerous. He has put forward plans to stimulate the economy with massive tariffs and tax cuts for the rich. He has promised to forcibly drive millions of people from their homes. He has no qualms about his intention to use the full power of the presidency, even the military, to carry out a campaign of retaliation against his political enemies.

If being an autocratic demagogue wasn't enough to turn off voters, the buffoonery and vile racism he and his surrogates displayed should have been. The only thing that has changed since Trump first descended the escalator in 2015 is that we have discovered how many of our fellow Americans find his grotesqueries as appealing as his promise of one-man rule. And now we are forced to relive the same trauma again, for the third time in a decade.

We still live on the knife edge of history. Knowing that even the lightest touch is enough to send us hurtling in one direction or another is enough to make you feel like you're going crazy. The only consolation is that it's almost over. Soon the stress of doubt will give way to the determination of certainty – one way or another.