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Election Day 2024 Predictions: Who Will Win Tomorrow?

Posted on by Vanessa
Election Day 2024 Predictions: Who Will Win Tomorrow?

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Just one more sleep until election day.

The race for the Oval Office is tight, with national polls showing a neck-and-neck race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Things are very different in Florida, as Trump has the edge over Harris.

That's what the polls and odds say now, with only one day left until election day.

When will the election results be announced?

Not on Election Day, at least not the official results of the presidential election.

At no time in the country's history has election day ballot counting been completed in any state, David Becker, executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research, told USA TODAY.

When will the election results be announced? How it played out in previous presidential elections

Most of the results the public receives on election night come from in-person voting and early in-person voting that day, as well as pre-processed mail-in ballots in states that allow it. This year, local and state certification deadlines range from two days after November 5 to more than a month.

What you should consider when taking surveys

The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population, USA TODAY reports.

If a candidate's lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump's performance.

Who is currently ahead in the polls and is favored by the odds?

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers refer to Monday, November 4, 2024, 1 p.m

270towin

270towin, a website that provides an interactive map of the Electoral College, shows Harris currently leading Trump by 1.1%.

However, the website's poll for Florida shows Trump leading Harris by seven points.

ABC News Project 538

ABC News Project 538 shows Harris with a 47.9% to 47% lead over Trump.

According to ABC News, the site provides an updated average for each candidate in the 2024 presidential election, taking into account each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

Poll averages are adjusted based on state and national surveys.

Real clear polling

Realclearpolling, a website that publishes current 2024 election polls, says the betting odds are currently in favor of Trump by a margin of +0.1.

Reuters/Ipsos

A Reuters/Ipsos poll from Oct. 29 shows Harris with a one-point lead over Trump.

“The three-day poll, which concluded Sunday, showed the race virtually undecided ahead of the Nov. 5 election. The poll had a margin of error of about three percentage points in either direction,” the poll said.

Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR).

What do the polls look like in Florida? According to the Stetson University poll, Trump has a significant lead over Harris among likely voters in Florida.

The poll, conducted between Oct. 25 and Nov. 1, showed Trump leading by seven points, securing the support of 53% of likely voters, compared to 46% for Harris.

The poll surveyed 452 likely voters, with results weighted by age, ethnicity, race, gender, education, party affiliation and geography to reflect the state's historical voting patterns. The survey has a credibility interval of +/- 5%.

Allan Lichtman reveals the 2024 presidential election

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman is a distinguished history professor at American University and has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against former President Donald Trump.

According to USA TODAY, Lichtman uses 13 “keys” to make his selection, ranging from economic indicators to candidates' charisma.

Lichtman, 77, has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election in the last half century, except for the 2000 election, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

When is election day?

Election day is Tuesday, November 5th.

Polling stations are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. in your time zone. All voters still in line at 7 p.m. will be allowed to cast their vote, no matter how long it takes.

Where to vote in Florida: Where is the polling place near me on Election Day 2024?

Here is a list of individual Florida counties and their corresponding voter precinct search links, sourced from Voter.org:

This story was recently updated to correct a typo.

Contributors: Rachel Barber and Rebecca Morin, USA TODAY

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