“Fraudulent” pollsters “put their finger on the scales”

Poll data expert Nate Silver criticized election forecasts that show a close race between presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in several states. Silver accused many pollsters of “standing in” to make sure their forecasts don't deviate too far from other forecasts.

“In fact, I kind of trust the pollsters less, all of them, every time a pollster says, 'Oh, every state is just +1, every single state is a draw,' No! You're a damn keeper! You're cheating! You're cheating!” Silver said during a Friday episode of his weekly podcast: Risky business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova.

Silver has stuck to his prediction that Trump will overtake Harris by 55 percent and 45 percent, respectively, and return to the White House.

However, Silver criticized the Republican-leaning pollsters for consistently giving Trump the advantage in many states and accused them of making a forecast that wouldn't “test them too much.”

He added: “If you survey 800 people in dozens of surveys, your numbers won’t all produce exactly 1-point leads. You lie! You put your damn finger on the scale!”

According to Silver, “If a pollster never releases numbers that surprise you, then they have no value.”

In one New York Times In his comment, Silver urged not to trust anyone's gut – not even his. He cited Trump's victory in 2016 as an example.

“It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; It’s because pollsters didn’t get enough of them in 2016 and 2020,” Silver wrote. “Trump supporters often have lower levels of civic engagement and social trust, so they may be less inclined to respond to a news organization poll.”

There's also the possibility that the presidential race could actually be that close, Silver said.

“But look, all seven swing states are still in the polls, it looks like a point and a half here. “It doesn’t take a genius to know that if every swing state is a draw, the overall forecast is a draw,” Silver said.