From JLo to Beyoncé: the double-edged sword of celebrity endorsements | culture

TThe 2024 presidential election, as far as one can tell from the imprecise art of polling, is essentially a bad decision. Nobody knows who will win on Tuesday (and we probably won't know for a while after that). Instead of a definitive numerical advantage, both forecasters and casual observers resort to vibrations – that amorphous, indefinable and personal sense of who has the momentum, where the energy is shifting, what feels TRUE. And for the candidates, recruiting arguably the defining element of modern American politics is a guaranteed way to assert a sentiment — though perhaps not the one they intended: celebrity.

In the last two weeks alone, both Trump and Harris have assembled their respective famous Avengers (including, in Harris' case, the actual Avengers) to campaign on their behalf. Not surprisingly, Harris has far more and more prominent endorsements to her name, including: Taylor Swift, LeBron James, George Clooney, Jennifer Aniston, Julia Roberts, Marc Anthony, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Tyler Perry, Usher, Lizzo, among others , Eminem and Puerto Rican superstar Bad Bunny, who released a video this week rejecting comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's racist comments during Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Harris was joined by Beyoncé, Bruce Springsteen, Stevie Wonder, Maggie Rogers, Willie Nelson, Jennifer Lopez and Oprah, among others.

What to think of the squad? On the one hand, it suggests a level of popular enthusiasm for Harris that stands in stark contrast to Trump, who has fielded his usual cast of ex-wrestlers and a handful of actors. Celebrities who have joined the Trump campaign in the past month include Kid Rock, Elon Musk, Hulk Hogan, Dennis Quaid, Zachary Levi, rapper Kodak Black, Dr. Phil, former NFL quarterback Brett Favre and country singer Jason Aldean. Celebrity endorsements are one way to gauge sentiment in an election whose poll numbers are too close together – and too unreliable for a large portion of the electorate that was either drawn or delighted in 2016 to reasonably support the leading candidate and on the At the star level, Harris certainly has the edge.

But a bulwark of celebrity support also presents what Shamira Ibrahim, writing for the Guardian shortly after Swift's coveted endorsement in September, called a “double-edged sword” of Hollywood glitz. Endorsements can generate excitement among a star's fan base, but they also support Republican arguments that Democrats are the party of coastal elites. (It should be noted, however, that Trump, a celebrity by profession, has not shied away from any semi-famous endorsement, even posting an AI deepfake Swift endorsement that she later condemned.)

It also creates the impression of desperation – either on the part of the campaign or celebrities – for relevance in an election that was relatively light on key issues (again, an unfair double standard for the Trump campaign, but a complaint that many in the USA). Harris' own party). While Harris has championed her expanded child tax credit, rebuilding the middle class, restoring reproductive freedoms and not going back, many of the headlines have focused on her guests — among them Beyoncé's blissful presence, the eerie flashbacks The finale spawned complacent days of Clinton's 2016 campaign.

All these celebrity speeches, although there is still little evidence that celebrity endorsement makes much of a difference. The gold standard example of celebrity influence remains Oprah's endorsement of Barack Obama in 2008 – her first endorsement of the president, which brought the then-Illinois senator about a million votes. But that was during the Democratic primary, when committed Democratic voters were largely deciding between Obama and Clinton, not in the general election between Obama and John McCain. In general elections, the prominence effect remains difficult to quantify and is more or less small. According to a recent YouGov poll, only 11% of Americans say a celebrity has caused them to reconsider their stance on a political issue, and just 7% say an endorsement has caused them to vote for a particular candidate agree. Democrats are far more likely to say celebrities getting involved in politics help democracy, although fewer than half of them still do so — 41%, compared with 12% of independents and 7% of Republicans.

Celebrities can make a difference by raising funds, attracting attention and getting involved, if not necessarily changing a vote. After Swift posted her support for Harris in September, 406,000 people clicked on her link to Vote.gov, which directs people to state voting websites (though it's unknown how many followed and actually registered). A 2024 Harvard Kennedy School study found that celebrities can use their platforms to increase voter registration or poll worker sign-up, particularly for younger voters disillusioned with older voices or institutions. One example cited was when Kylie Jenner posted a non-partisan voter registration link in 2020; The site later reported a 1,500% increase in traffic compared to the previous day and an 80% increase in the total number of voters registered to vote. As David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, put it to CBS 58, “Overall, celebrities would like to think they can influence voter behavior, but they are more valuable as fundraising tools and as door openers for their followers.”

While registering to vote is nothing, it's also not the same as actually voting, let alone voting for a celebrity's preferred candidate. But as the election comes down to a handful of counties in a few states, and in an election where Generation Z turnout is expected to hit record turnout, the mood is urgent. There's a sense of desperation, an attempt to get every single voter over the finish line – perhaps a Maggie Rogers fan in Michigan, a Beyoncé fan in Houston, or a secretly Harris-leaning woman touched by Julia Roberts' ad , although admittedly it's hard to imagine how an undecided or tuned-out voter would 1) only pay attention to the rally with said celebrity or 2) seriously consider not voting for Trump. (Conversely, it's hard to imagine the die-hard Hogan or Quaid supporters on the fence, but maybe they exist!)

Given the lack of evidence that a celebrity actually gets people to vote for them, the importance of all these endorsements ultimately comes down to sentiment. Maybe Harris' overwhelming lead in celebrity firepower feels like an actual advantage, maybe it feels ominously incongruous. Whether you see the support as a good thing or an omen depends entirely on your feelings in these final days of the campaign.