Haryana: How Congress lost a safe election

The general elections in Haryana will go down as one of the biggest surprises in India's electoral history. This proves once again that Congress has mastered the art of gloriously losing a victorious election. In Haryana, where the Congress was believed to be heading for a big victory, it lost badly. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), for which no opinion poll or exit poll had predicted even a weak victory, managed to win, and by a good margin. This is further evidence that election forecasting in a country as diverse as India needs a major course correction.

Haryana is a fabulous example of the killer instinct of the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. The result is a victory for the BJP's tenacity, patience and fighting spirit. The party knew from the beginning that Haryana would be a difficult task and planned accordingly. On the other hand, the Congress once again fell victim to its overconfidence. She let her guard down, took the elections for granted and is now paying the price. In my opinion, five factors led to the BJP's victory.

BJP's expert in micromanagement

Firstly, the BJP has planned things at the micro level. When she realized she might lose badly in Haryana, she acted quickly and changed her chief minister, who had been in office for nine and a half years. Manohar Lal Khattar, who proved to be a liability for the party, was replaced by Nayab Singh Saini. Khattar was also kept out of the election campaign; He was not visible on party posters or banners. Ultimately, the strategy seems to have worked well for the party.

Secondly, the BJP had worked to consolidate its non-Jat votes. With over 20% of the population, Jats are a dominant and powerful caste in Haryana. The community has provided the maximum number of chief ministers to the state since its inception. Saini's appointment as Chief Minister was also a clear message to the OBC community.

Thirdly, the Congress, in its arrogance, forgot that the BJP, with the help of its enormous organization and resources as well as its huge appetite for micromanagement, would ensure that its voters went to the polling booth and voted for the party. On the other hand, the Congress failed to mobilize its voters due to lack of organizational strength. That's a lesson that Congress needs to learn, which is that it needs to micromanage down to the last voter.

The Congress failed to quell factionalism

Fourth, the Congress was characterized by factionalism until the last day of voting. The rivalry between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja tipped the balance in favor of the BJP. Hooda should have been accommodating, but instead he was so defiant that he didn't even listen to his leader Rahul Gandhi, who was in favor of an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Numerous rounds of negotiations took place between the AAP and the Congress leaders. The former did not win a seat in the election, but received around 1.78% of the vote. If it had allied with the Congress, it would certainly have increased the coffers of the INDIA bloc.

Fifth, contrary to expectations, Dalit and Jat voters seem not to have shown their full support for the Congress after the Lok Sabha elections. In the national polls, Rahul and the INDIA bloc's 'Save the Constitution' campaign had worked effectively for the opposition, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.

This time there was no such campaign. Two smaller parties, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), have joined forces with those in favor of their Dalit politics. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was allied with the INLD while Chandrashekhar Azad was allied with the JJP. Although the latter alliance couldn't do much – it got almost 1% of the votes – the INLD-BSP combination managed to grab about 6% of the votes. In highly competitive elections and the voting process, even a fraction of the votes can decide an election. The combined vote share of these two formations is around 7%. Together, they have certainly dealt a blow to the Congress, which had relied heavily on Jat and Dalit support.

The art of losing

Finally, Congress should also think about its senior leaders, those over 75 years old. In Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress was confident of winning the assembly elections, it was led by Kamal Nath. Both Nath and Hooda come from the old world. But this world has changed drastically. If the Congress is serious about fighting and defeating the Modi-led BJP, it needs to find young leaders.

Haryana is the fifth assembly election after Punjab, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh that the Congress should have won but failed to do so. Will the party reflect and make changes? Only time will tell.

(Ashutosh is the author of Hindu Rashtra and co-founder of SatyaHindi.com)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author