How Kamala Harris won the election despite losing in Pennsylvania

Most political experts agree that the most likely path for Vice President Kamala Harris is to win the Electoral College over Pennsylvania — but there is a path for her to win without the swing state.

Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is the most contested state this year and is expected to play an outsized role in deciding the election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Polls show the two candidates are in a dead heat in Pennsylvania. FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows Trump ahead by just 0.2 points on Sunday.

Most experts say whoever wins the Keystone State will likely win the White House, and that Harris's easiest path to victory is to take Pennsylvania and the other two “blue wall” states – Michigan and Wisconsin take over, which President Joe Biden won in 2020.

But it's possible that Harris could lose Pennsylvania and still reach the 270 electoral vote threshold and win the election by getting a combination of some of the other battleground states: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (15). , North Carolina (16), Nevada (six) and Wisconsin (10).

Harris is expected to receive at least 226 electoral votes from the uncontested states, so she needs at least 44 of the votes from the contested states to reach 270.

“Right now she's only slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. So if she wins there, she could still get past 270 by adding a combination of just two of the remaining battlegrounds,” said Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University. told Newsweek.

“Winning all three of these elections would guarantee victory in the Electoral College. So Harris has multiple opportunities to get to 270 even if she loses Pennsylvania,” he said.

If the vice president loses Pennsylvania, her most likely path would be to win Michigan and Wisconsin — where polls show her narrowly ahead of Trump — as well as a combination of at least two other battleground states: either Arizona and Georgia; Arizona and North Carolina; Georgia and North Carolina; or Arizona, Nevada and either Georgia or North Carolina.

Harris could also win if she wins Michigan but not Wisconsin, as long as she also wins either Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada or Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

If she wins Wisconsin but not Michigan, she must also win either Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina or Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.

Another, albeit unlikely, way for Harris to win the presidency, even if she loses all three blue wall states, would be to take the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

A Harris win without Pennsylvania “would be difficult but doable,” said Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University Newsweek.

Harris is unlikely to lose Pennsylvania but win Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina, Reeher said, adding: “Stranger things have happened.”