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How strong will Helene be? Explanation of the hurricane category forecast.

Posted on by Vanessa
How strong will Helene be? Explanation of the hurricane category forecast.

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When monster storms like Helene hit the United States, meteorologists use five categories to predict the life-threatening consequences for residents in their path.

This scale – officially known as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – is a rating based on maximum sustained wind speed, which ranges from 74 to 157 miles per hour or more.

It is important to note, however, that the scale does not take into account potentially deadly hurricane hazards such as storm surge, rainfall, flooding, and tornadoes. These hazards require people to take protective measures, including evacuating from storm surge-prone areas.

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Hurricane Helene, which is heading toward the Florida coast on Thursday, will continue to gain wind speed over the next few days. As its strength increases, it will also be classified in the official hurricane scale category of 1 to 5.

What is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale?

The Saffir-Simpson scale compares wind speeds with examples of the type of damage and impacts those winds could cause in the U.S. In general, damage increases by about a factor of four for each category increase.

The scale was developed in 1969 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir as part of a United Nations project. It was adapted by meteorologist Robert Simpson in the early 1970s and has since become an important tool for alerting the public to the potential impacts of hurricanes of varying intensity, the National Hurricane Center said.

How much damage could Helene do in Florida?

The actual consequences of Helene will depend on where it makes landfall and how its further effects, such as flooding, storm surges and tornadoes, develop. However, the wind speed and category when it makes landfall will primarily cause power outages and building damage.

A Wednesday forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm will make landfall Thursday evening as a Category 3 with winds of about 125 mph, just 4 mph below Category 4 strength. Meanwhile, AccuWeather meteorologists predicted Helene could reach Category 4 strength in the Gulf.

If the storm reaches Category 4, it will, by definition, leave a trail of “catastrophic” damage. The National Hurricane Center says Category 4 storms threaten solid homes with “severe” damage, possibly destroying both roofs and walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles will be toppled.

“Power outages will last for weeks, possibly even months. Most areas will be uninhabitable for weeks or months,” the Hurricane Center explains about Category 4 storms.

A Category 3 storm is significantly weaker, but still a major hurricane. “After the storm passes, there will be no power or water for several days to weeks,” the center says of Category 3 storms.

What is a major hurricane?

Although all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, Category 3 and higher hurricanes are considered major hurricanes. Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and loss of life. Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surges, rain-induced flooding, and tornadoes.

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What are the 5 hurricane categories?

Category 1 hurricane: 74-95 mphVery dangerous winds will cause some damage: Well-built frame homes could sustain damage to roofs, shingles, vinyl siding, and gutters. Large tree limbs will break off and shallow-rooted trees could be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in power outages that could last a few to several days.

Category 2 hurricane: 96-110 mphExtremely dangerous winds will cause major damage: Well-built timber-framed houses could suffer major damage to roofs and facades. Many trees with shallow roots will be knocked over or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. An almost complete power outage is expected, which could last several days or weeks.

Category 3 hurricane (severe): 111-129 mphThere will be devastating damage: well-built timber-framed houses may suffer major damage or roof sheathing and gable ends may be torn off. Many trees will be knocked over or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Power and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm.

Category 4 hurricane (severe): 130-156 mphCatastrophic damage will occur: Well-built frame homes may suffer severe damage, with most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls lost. Most trees will snap or be uprooted and power poles will be knocked down. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas from the outside world. Power outages will last weeks to months. Most areas will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Category 5 (severe) hurricane: 157 mph or higherThere will be catastrophic damage: a high percentage of frame houses will be destroyed; roofs will collapse completely and walls will collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas from the outside world. Power outages will last for weeks, possibly months. Most areas will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

How common are each category?

Category 1 hurricanes are the most common. According to Fox Weather, up to seven of them form each year. By comparison, Category 3 hurricanes usually only form three per year.

The rarest are the extremely rare Category 5 storms, which have resulted in landfall accidents only four times in U.S. history, Weather.com reported.

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