Hurricane Rafael strengthens to a Category 3 storm. Where is it headed next?

Hurricane Rafael has strengthened into a Category 3 storm as it continues to approach Cuba, where it is expected to make landfall later on Wednesday, November 6 – but meteorologists say the storm's path will become more unpredictable as soon as it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

As the storm moved closer to Cuba, the National Hurricane Center said in an update Wednesday afternoon that Rafael had strengthened and become a Category 3 hurricane.

The storm is expected to bring a “life-threatening storm surge with damaging hurricane force winds and flash flooding in parts of western Cuba,” according to officials, who also warned that “uncertainty about Rafael's intensity later is greater than normal.” in the forecast period.”

According to AccuWeather, Rafael became a hurricane on Tuesday, November 5, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h). Hours later the wind had increased to 100 miles per hour.

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However, with another “non-tropical storm” in the south-central U.S., forecasters say there's a wide window as to where it heads next.

“Once Rafael arrives in the Gulf of Mexico, subtle differences in intensity and atmospheric steering winds could have a significant impact on his final route,” said Bill Deger, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

Should it make landfall in the U.S. this weekend, the odds are highest that it will be on the Louisiana coast, according to the outlet.

The hurricane could also move west across the Gulf – or disintegrate completely.

“It is also possible that Rafael could be torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipate in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall,” Deger added.

While the storm is not expected to make landfall in Florida, rain and possible tornadoes could pose a problem for the Florida Keys. On Wednesday, the National Weather Service issued a tropical storm warning for the lower and central Florida Keys The News Press.