If voting errors in 2024 match those of the 2020 election, Trump will win “with a bang,” says CNN data guru

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Tuesday that if polls for the 2024 presidential election are as bad as they were in 2020, former President Trump will “win overwhelmingly.”

Enten broke down the current swing state poll numbers between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, noting that they show a race that's “too close to call.” However, he pointed out that the polls were significantly worse in the last election, and if that is the case this time, Trump could win in a landslide.

“But let’s say we have an election error like we had in 2020,” Enten told CNN anchor John Berman.

“What happens then? “Well, then Donald Trump wins the election with 312 electoral votes because he holds all of those battleground states on the Great Lake plus Nevada and the other states where he was in the lead – Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia,” he said.

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CNN's senior data reporter said if presidential polls in 2024 are as bad as they were in 2020, Trump will win with a “thumping victory.”

The reporter first showed the close numbers between Trump and Harris in the seven battleground states. Harris is up by one point in Nevada and Pennsylvania and up by two points in Michigan and Wisconsin, his overall polls showed. Trump, on the other hand, is one point higher in North Carolina and Georgia and two points higher in Arizona.

Enten reminded viewers that, according to FiveThirtyEight, these point differences are within the poll's margin of error, so it's currently impossible to know who will win.

He mentioned that since 1972, swing state polls have averaged a margin of error of 3.4 points — assuming the presidential candidates are within ten points of each other in their polls and they are no more than a point or two apart.

He also pointed out that swing state polls can be off by 9.4 points 5% of the time, making the situation even more uncertain for those watching the polls right now.

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Enten argued that the only thing current swing-state polls show is that the current presidential race is “too close to call.” ((Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images))

“So the bottom line is that the state polling averages tell us that this is simply a race that is too close to call. Maybe one candidate has an advantage over the other. But the bottom line is that it is.” “It's way too close to call, and it's going to stay that way,” he said.

Still, Enten offered several hypothetical situations. The first was what the election results would look like if the current swing state polls were 100% accurate. “If the polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris will receive 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262 as she leads the battleground Great Lake states despite losing North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.”

He then showed what would happen if the voting errors matched those in the 2020 election. According to Vanderbilt University, polls overestimated President Biden's lead over Trump by 3.9 percentage points in the two weeks before Election Day, calling it the “biggest polling error since 1980, when support for Democratic candidate Jimmy Carter was overestimated by 6 percentage points.” “.

Enten argued that if today's polls had the same errors as last cycle, Trump could escape with 312 Electoral College votes, Harris with 226.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are fighting a tough battle. (Getty Images)

Conversely, Ducks discussed what would happen if polling errors surfaced on November 5, 2024, predicting a red wave in the 2022 midterm elections.

“What happens if we have an election error like we did in 2022?” he asked. “Well, in this particular case, the winner has turned again. And Kamala Harris wins with 319 electoral votes because she takes back the battleground states on the Great Lake and takes North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.”

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