Iowa Football: Predicting the Hawkeyes and Gophers against the spread

The Hawkeyes secured another win in their non-conference finale a week ago, but now they're taking things a step further with their first road trip of the year and first Big Ten matchup of 2024. Iowa is looking for revenge after losing to Floyd of Rosedale in heartbreaking fashion a year ago and will be looking to start their conference slate with a win.

Our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook believe that's exactly what's happening. DK has the Hawks up by 2.5 points, with an over/under of 35 total points. That's shifted down just slightly over the course of the week, putting Iowa at 18.75-16.25. Say 19-16.

Here at The Pants, we're not far from the folks in the desert. We're expecting Iowa to be on the right side of the score at 19-17, which would put us just above and just ahead of the Gophers in points, though we're predicting a clear Iowa win.

As for individual predictions, most of us are expecting Iowa to win, or even come out on top. There are a few pessimists in the house, but perhaps most disturbingly, perennial bear Mattcabel is not one of them.

Here's a look at our individual predictions for Saturday's game.

SirNicholas33

At the press conference on Tuesday, Kirk Ferentz seemed … angry. Last year was the greatest return of all time that didn't happen, Floyd was stuck in Siberia and then sleeping with PJ Fleck…Kirk is going to have the guys on their toes for this game. You know it, I know it, they know it, everybody knows it. This is going to be a “use all your timeouts to piss everyone off on the other side” type of game. Salty Kirk, Petty Kirk… in this game? Yes, please. Yes, yes, yes.

Iowa stays clean in the turnover category and the defense fixes the secondary breakdowns. The Hawks win and cover.

Prediction: Iowa 27, Minnesota 14

Bart Pierce

After last year's Cooper DeJean TD that wasn't one, I thought the Hawks would travel to Kinnick North and take down the Rowers. After the debacle against Iowa State and losing to a guy named Troy at halftime, I'm not optimistic. Our punt coverage is questionable, our secondary looks terrible, and the quarterback play is inconsistent. Sigh. Go Hawks?

Prediction: Minnesota 23 – Iowa 10

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This is a crucial game for the Hawks if they want to keep their hopes of a special season alive. They can't afford another loss before their trip to Columbus on Oct. 5. Last week's disappointing win over Troy left mixed reactions. The offense wasn't bad, I'll take 462 yards and 38 points anytime, and Cade had a solid, if not outstanding, day. But the defense allowing big plays for the second week in a row and the special teams breakdowns are alarm bells.

Last year's game left a bad taste in our mouths. This team wants revenge and they get it. I think Iowa is getting back on track and looking better on defense while the offense relies on Kaleb Johnson to get another 100-yard game with some key plays from McNamara. A late Gophers touchdown has us sweating a little, but Iowa catches an onside kick and brings Floyd back home.

Prediction: Iowa 21, Minnesota 17

Glendale Hawk

When we reviewed the season in August, I don't think any of us thought this game would be a game-changer for the Hawkeyes, but it is. Win in Minny and you get the pig and keep a sliver of playoff hope alive (an incredibly small one, but not zero). Lose and you're looking at an 8-4/7-5 season and an empty trophy case (the bull may still be there, but the trophies that matter are gone).

Hopefully this team comes in with blood in their mouths and seeks revenge for last year's refereeing debacle and doesn't have a listless first half like last week. I think it's definitely going to be close, but Iowa's offense is just a little more developed and is starting to gel pretty well (if only Cade would survey the field). It's going to be close, but Floyd is coming home.

Prediction: Iowa 24, Minnesota 20

mattcable

for the first time this year, I'm really at a loss. I don't know how good these teams are. I'd love to say we'll crush them because everyone expects it to be close, but who knows. This team has some areas of concern and there's a playbook for how to score points against us. I'm going to give the Hawks the benefit of the doubt in this game because I want Floyd to come home, but if the Hawks lose, I'm not sure what's going to happen the rest of the season. I think it'll be close, but ultimately the Hawks will pull out the win.

Prediction: Iowa 19, Minnesota 14

MattReisenner

Looking at the Xs and Os, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about this game, from Minnesota's stellar run defense to Iowa's surprisingly shaky secondary to the fact that this is the Hawks' first road game of the year. But this pick ultimately boiled down to five simple words:

It. Was. Not. A. Fair. Catch.

Call it revenge or karma, but I can't imagine Minnesota getting anything less than Iowa's best chance in this contest. Expect a physical, low-scoring battle in which Iowa's offense does just enough to give Floyd an easy trip back to Iowa City.

Prediction: Iowa 17, Minnesota 14

JPinIC

I want to believe that this team can get things under control. I want to believe that the offense is close to Really it clicks and the defense is exactly how we wanted it to be and that the deep shots at the beginning of the year would mean there's no way that's going to happen the rest of the year. I want it.

But I'm not there yet. Phil is great, but I think there's a big hole in the secondary and another at quarterback in terms of deep passing. I expect Fleck and the Gophers to do everything they can to stop Kaleb Johnson and the run and force Cade McNamara to make those long throws.

On the other side of the ball, we know Fleck wants to keep running him, but I would guess we'll see multiple throws down the field targeting Hall in particular on double plays. I suspect they'll get at least one, but Parker causes a turnover on one as well. If Cade McNamara can avoid the turnover, I think Iowa has the upper hand, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say he ends up throwing a short deep throw that costs Iowa the win.

Prediction: Minnesota 20, Iowa 17

Here's how we see events unfolding in Minneapolis on Saturday night. Let us know your predictions in the comments below!