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Is Trump or Harris in the lead?

Posted on by Vanessa
Is Trump or Harris in the lead?

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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are statistically tied in the latest Forbes/HarrisX national poll released late Monday.

Among the 4,520 registered voters surveyed, Harris has a razor-thin lead of 49% to 48% over Trump, with 3% favoring third-party candidates. When respondents were asked to make a choice only Between Harris and Trump, the vice president's lead grew slightly to 49-47%, with 4% undecided.

The survey was conducted online between October 30 and November 1 and has a margin of error of ±1%.

Among respondents who said they had already voted, Harris led Trump 56-40%, according to the poll.

“Price increases/inflation” was one of the top issues for respondents, with 36% of respondents saying it was most important to them. Immigration and the economy followed with 32% and 31% of respondents respectively, putting them at the top of their list. Abortion was the fourth most important issue, with 16% of respondents saying it was one of their top issues.

“The race tomorrow will depend on turnout, especially for Trump,” Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief researcher at HarrisX, an analytics firm with no ties to Kamala Harris, told Forbes. “Trump has a history of outperforming polls in both 2016 and 2020 because of his ability to persuade low-propensity voters to show up and win over last-minute voters.”

What you should consider when taking surveys

The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

If a candidate's lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump's performance.

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