Jill Stein hurts Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris, poll shows

A new poll suggests Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein is drawing more voters from former President Donald Trump than Vice President Kamala Harris.

Harris has a slim lead over Trump in a hypothetical three-way race, according to a Noble Predictive Insights poll released last week. With Stein on the ballot, Harris' lead increases, suggesting a potential spoiler effect similar to what many Democrats accused Stein of doing to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

The poll shows Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 47 percent. However, with Stein in the race, Trump's support drops to 46 percent while Harris maintains her support at 49 percent, suggesting that Stein is receiving more support from Trump than Harris. Although Stein's voter base is still relatively small at about 1 percent, she could prove crucial in an election that hinges on close results in swing states.

The poll surveyed 2,300 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percent.

The dynamic reflects concerns from 2016, when Stein's candidacy was seen by many as draining Clinton's votes in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, ultimately favoring Trump's victory.

In Michigan, Trump beat Clinton by 10,704 votes. Stein received 51,463 votes in the state. In Pennsylvania, Trump beat Clinton by 44,292 votes. Stein received 49,941 votes. In Wisconsin, Trump beat Clinton by 22,748 votes. Stein received 31,072 votes.

The legacy of this election will be important in the 2024 campaign, especially as Harris seeks to retain a coalition of voters that spans a broad political spectrum, ranging from former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney to progressive independent Sen. Bernie Sanders.

But this poll suggests the wind may be blowing away.

This week, Stein received a recommendation from David Duke, the former leader of the Ku Klux Klan. Duke, a known white supremacist, supported Stein over Trump, citing her criticism of U.S. policy toward Israel as the reason.

Stein has clearly rejected the endorsement, calling Duke a “racist troll” in a social media post. Still, the attention the endorsement brought has cast a shadow over Stein's campaign and added a layer of controversy to an already complex race.

Duke's public break with Trump represents a reversal of his endorsements in 2016 and 2020, in which he accused Trump of being too closely aligned with Israel and the “Jewish lobby.”

While this development is unlikely to influence a large number of voters, it could influence far-right or nationalist parts of Trump's base that feel alienated by his foreign policy positions.

For Trump, the emergence of Stein as a potential spoilsport could be a deciding factor in battleground states where even a small shift in votes could determine the outcome. For Harris, Stein's candidacy could, paradoxically, provide an unexpected advantage by taking votes away from Trump and narrowing his path to victory.

Newsweek emailed Stein, Harris and Trump's campaigns seeking comment.