Kamala Harris may be underperforming in California

A new poll days before the Nov. 5 election shows Kamala Harris comfortably winning in her home state of California, although with less support than expected – a worrying sign for the vice president's chances in critical states that will decide the nationally undecided race could.

In its final poll before the election, the nonpartisan Berkeley Institute of Government Studies found that 57% of California voters supported Harris and 35% supported former Republican President Donald Trump.

However, this strong lead is smaller than President Joe Biden's performance in California in 2020. Four years ago, Biden easily secured the Golden State with 63.5% of votes cast, to Trump's 34.3%.

According to the poll, enthusiasm for Harris is lower among Latino and Asian American voters this year. That's not enough to threaten the vice president's chances of winning California's 54 electoral votes. But that could spell trouble for Harris nationally on Election Day in a race widely seen as razor-thin.

“Vice President Harris is in a strong position in California, with roughly equal support among his white, Latino and Asian American voters and very high support among the state's black voters,” Eric Schickler, co-director of the pollster, said in a press release. “At the same time, their smaller vote margins among Latino and Asian Americans compared to what Biden received in 2020 speaks to why the broader race across the country is likely so close.”

The survey surveyed 4,341 California voters and likely online voters in English and Spanish, representing the state's electorate. The margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points. It was paid for in part by the Los Angeles Times.

In 2020, about 75% of Latino and Asian American voters in California supported Biden, according to CNN exit polls cited by the pollsters. That number has fallen to 57% among Latino voters and 56% among Asian American voters, according to the poll. Overall, that decline is somewhat offset by strong support among black voters and college-educated white voters, pollsters said.

The poll captures Harris' “vulnerabilities” in swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University. In the Atlanta suburbs, for example, a rapidly growing population of Asian Americans could help determine which direction Georgia goes on Election Day.

“That’s because this election is still being won on the margins — just not in California,” he said.

If the poll holds true, the changing politics of Hispanic voters would be an “earthquake” in California politics beyond the presidential election, said Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant.

“Seeing it happen is a little breathtaking because it’s not a small change,” he said.

The poll found that Harris received more support among California's white voters than Biden did in 2020, 58% to 36%, compared to a smaller 51% to 47% victory margin for Biden among white voters in 2020. The Pollsters said that was fueled by strong support for Harris among college-educated white voters, who favor her 67% to 26%. The state's white voters who don't have a college degree favor Trump by nearly 50% to 45%. Just over three-quarters of California's Black voters, 77%, support Harris, while 82% of Black voters in 2020 supported Biden.

Elsewhere, the poll found strong support remains for the state's Proposition 36, which would increase penalties for repeat drug possession and shoplifting. Sixty percent of respondents support the measure and 25% oppose it, suggesting that the closely watched measure – whose supporters include San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and San Francisco Mayor London Breed and opponents Governor Gavin Newsom – election day will lead to victory.

Consistent measures to control rents and increase the minimum wage appear to be closer, the survey says.

Proposition 32 would raise the state minimum wage to $17 or $18, depending on company size. About 47% support the measure, but opposition has increased slightly this fall, according to the poll. About 39% now oppose it, up from 36% in September.

Opposition to Proposition 33, which would expand local governments' ability to impose rent controls, is growing. 45% of respondents oppose the plan, an increase of nine percentage points from the end of September. About 35% support it.

The poll also showed Rep. Adam Schiff, a Burbank Democrat, with a strong lead over Republican former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres first baseman Steve Garvey in the race for late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein's U.S. Senate seat. appointed Senator Laphonza Butler declined to run. In the most recent poll, Schiff leads Garvey 55% to 35%, with 11% undecided. That's slightly higher for Schiff and lower for Garvey than the IGS survey found last month.

Originally published: November 1, 2024 at 11:30 am PST