Lincoln Riley's USC or Brent Venables' Oklahoma: Who's better off in third grade?

Two and a half seasons have passed since Lincoln Riley's surprise departure from Oklahoma for USC rocked college football's coaching carousel, and neither of the two traditional powers appears to be in better shape than when he left Norman.

Riley's Trojans (3-4) have lost three straight Big Ten games and four of their first five as a member of the league. They will try to prevail against Rutgers on Friday night at the Coliseum.

“We had some really unfortunate failures in some of them, but we weren't good enough to overcome those,” Riley told reporters earlier this week. “That is of course what we want to achieve.”

He is 22-12 at USC.

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables, whom Sooners fans applauded as they bid farewell to Riley and his .846 winning percentage in five seasons, finds life in a new league just as difficult. The Sooners (4-3) have lost three of four games in the SEC, including their last two games by a combined score of 69-12, and face No. 18 Ole Miss on Saturday with an offense ranked No. 132 134th is FBS teams in yards per game (4.31).

“What we're putting out today as a football team doesn't come close to the standard here at the University of Oklahoma,” Venables told reporters after the Sooners lost 35-9 at home to South Carolina on Saturday. He is 20-13 and at OU.

The last season in which both USC and Oklahoma failed to receive a bowl bid was 1997. That outcome is at stake this fall. In third grade, both programs have a first grade atmosphere under their current schedule.

“Anything we see that isn’t working at a high level or isn’t moving in that direction, we aggressively address it and will do everything we can to continue to plug those leaks.” Riley said.

So which blue blood is more likely to come out of this messy season with their current coach?

What's going on at USC?

You know things aren't going well with this “home run recruit” when comparisons start making the rounds between the new guy's record and the record of the man he replaced. Clay Helton's record in 34 games in his first three full seasons as USC coach: 25-9.

Riley tried to prepare USC fans for a tough Big Ten debut before the season, talking about how far the program fell behind its national power peers when he arrived. Thanks to quarterback Caleb Williams and some turnover luck, he was able to cover up the shortcomings of his first year and nearly won the Pac-12 and a spot in the College Football Playoff.

In 2023, the turnover luck ran out and Williams was good enough to get USC to 7-5. A bowl win with Miller Moss at quarterback provided some hope for 2024, despite Riley's warnings.

Riley revamped his defensive staff in the offseason — you can't blame former coordinator Alex Grinch anymore — and that side of the ball was better in 2024, although the Trojans' lack of depth is starting to undermine the improvement.

The scary thing about USC's current problems? It's not just the defense. The offensive line might be his biggest weakness. The special forces are once again a problem, as is the tendency to suffer penalties at crucial points.

No team in the country goes from apparent control of a game to crisis mode as quickly and frequently as USC.

At least Riley can sell Trojans fans that his team is close by a total of 14 points after four losses – if that's any consolation.

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What's going on in Oklahoma?

Sooners fans were more than happy to blame Riley for the Venables' first team finishing 6-7, especially after Oklahoma rebounded to 10-3 last year, last in the Big 12.

Now the program is quickly moving into areas where the comparisons are particularly problematic for Venables. The last time Oklahoma finished a regular season under .500 was 1998, the last of three losing seasons under John Blake. The Blake era was the nadir of the Sooners' post-Barry Switzer impotence, producing 12 wins in 34 games. Venables is currently leading an Oklahoma offense that is averaging 288 yards per game. The Sooners have not averaged fewer than 300 yards per game in a season since 1998.

Someone had to pay, and on Sunday it turned out to be first-year offensive coordinator Seth Littrell, who replaced Jeff Lebby when he became head coach at Mississippi State.

Venables has tried to use the portal to build a patchwork offensive line this season, and it's been a disaster that could cost him not one, but two top quarterback recruits. The Sooners return former five-star Jackson Arnold as their starter this week after four-star freshman Michael Hawkins failed to provide more than a passing flicker rather than a spark. Who knows if any of the quarterbacks will enroll in Norman for another season. The fact that Dillon Gabriel, last year's starter, is currently leading the No. 1 team in the country at Oregon has only added to the bad optics.

Like USC, injuries have compounded the Sooners' problems. In particular, OU's reception room was destroyed.

For Oklahoma fans who spent years watching Riley's powerful Heisman offense undermined by porous defenses, this season must feel like a twisted joke. Venables, the former Clemson and Oklahoma defensive coordinator, gave them the stingy defense they craved, but now the offense can barely march past midfield.

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Going nowhere(?)

First, let's get this point straight: It's highly unlikely — though perhaps not entirely impossible, considering the record-breaking lack of patience across college football — that either USC or Oklahoma would make a coaching change this year. If for no other reason it would cost a fortune.

With even experienced and respected athletic directors like Oklahoma's Joe Castiglione seemingly unable to resist the urge for unnecessary contract extensions, Venables was given a new contract following the Sooners' 10-3 finish in 2023. The new contract pays Venables more than $8 million per year, runs through 2029 and has a buyout of $44.8 million as of Dec. 1, according to USA Today.

Because USC is a private school, Riley's contract is not publicly available. USA Today, citing the school's most recent tax records, reported that he was paid just over $10 million last year, making him the fourth-highest paid coach in the country.

Riley reportedly received a 10-year contract when he moved. While that may seem like a massive over-signing now, it's pretty much in line with the megadeals handed out to successful coaches like LSU's Brian Kelly and Penn State's James Franklin in recent years. It's safe to assume that, conservatively speaking, USC would owe Riley more than $75 million if it were to let him move on this year.

Texas A&M didn't just raise the bar on contract buyouts when it agreed to pay $76.8 million to fire Jimbo Fisher last year – the Aggies raised the bar. However, we should not expect others to follow their example. It should also be noted that A&M gave Fisher six years to figure this out, twice as long as Riley and Venables were at their current schools.

Patience of the fans

Sooners fans rallied around Venables simply because he wasn't Riley, but that group grew weary of Bob Stoops and Riley only Winning double-digit games and Big 12 titles. There won't be much tolerance for mediocrity, no matter how much tougher the SEC is than the Big 12.

Oklahoma fans accused Riley of fleeing to the West Coast to avoid the Sooners' move to the SEC and celebrated the karma of USC almost immediately regaining momentum and moving to the Big Ten. While OU falters, Sooners fans could at least take solace in Riley's struggles and seemed to validate what they saw as his shortcomings: culture building, attention to detail and a general inability to convey toughness.

USC certainly didn't seem ready for the Big Ten. On the bright side for USC fans, their new conference offers a few more softer landings than the SEC. Of course, Minnesota and Maryland should have been two of them, and instead the Trojans landed with a thud.

Playing in Riley's favor? USC football has been mismanaged for so long that it may well be noted by fans and supporters that the Trojans are still playing catch-up with the programs they consider their peers.

Is there help on the way?

Perhaps? According to 247Sports, the Sooners signed the eighth-ranked high school recruiting class in 2024. It featured five offensive linemen, only one of whom was four stars or better.

Their 2025 class is currently ranked No. 11, just behind USC at No. 10. The Sooners' two highest-rated committed prospects are offensive linemen from Texas, and Venables is too I'm still working on adding more.

As for USC, the Trojans were No. 17 last year and appeared to be on track for a top-five finish in 2025 before suffering a pair of five-star departures this summer.

Perhaps even more concerning is that Riley and USC have failed to protect their fertile back yard. Only three of California's top 50 recruits in the class of 2025 are committed to the Trojans.

Who is doing better?

What do they say about misery-loving society?

Venables seems to understand the mission at Oklahoma, but it could be difficult to get the roster where it needs to be quickly enough and get the right offensive coordinator in place to keep his job long-term.

That's looking like a pretty big project now, and the Sooners' schedule won't be any less daunting next year. Not exactly ideal conditions for a major turnaround.

Riley has a track record of winning at a high level and it appears he has more room to grow. However, it should be noted: Venables plays for the sports director who hired him. It's not Riley.

If Riley and Venables were stocks, we wouldn't recommend investing in either, but if you're forced to choose between them, Riley seems like the better choice to bounce back from the abyss.

(Top Photos: Michael Owens, Ronald Cortes / Getty Images)