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Marist/PBS/NPR National Poll: Presidential Election Poll Results

Posted on by Vanessa
Marist/PBS/NPR National Poll: Presidential Election Poll Results

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Vice President Kamala Harris has a four-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the final national poll released Monday by Marist.

The poll of 1,297 likely voters, sponsored by NPR and PBS, found that 51% of respondents supported Harris while 47% supported Trump. The remaining 2% supported a third-party candidate. The result is outside the poll's margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.

The poll found that Harris significantly narrowed Trump's lead among men nationally. Among men, Trump still leads the poll 51% to 47%, but in the previous iteration of the poll, Trump had a 16-point lead. Among women, Harris leads the poll 55% to 45%, although her previous lead was 18 points.

Respondents who told Marist they had already voted made up 55% of the sample, which was conducted between Oct. 31 and Nov. 2 by phone, text or online. 56% of those who had already voted preferred Harris, while 53% of those who had not yet voted preferred Trump.

“Harris is well-positioned to win a majority of the vote for president but must navigate a narrow path to reach 270 in the Electoral College,” Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, in the survey release. “Former President Trump’s candidacy is being held back by his high disapproval among likely voters.”

The Marist poll is the latest poll to show a last-second swing in Harris' favor, including a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll that has the vice president ahead in a state considered safe for Trump was valid. Other national polls have shown that it appears to be a neck-and-neck race.

What you should consider when taking surveys

The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

If a candidate's lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump's performance.

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