MLB Division Series: Tigers-Guardians Game 5 Predictions, Key

Due to the weather forecast in Cleveland, Game 5 of the American League Division Series is now a Saturday matinee between the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers.

For one of these teams, the season ends on Saturday. The other will travel to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees in the championship series.

Will it be star Tarik Skubal and the up-and-coming Gritty Tigs who move on? Or will the AL Central champions Guardians fend off the underdogs?

We'll provide you with pre-match predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, 1:08 p.m

The series was tied 2-2

Pitching matchup: Tarik Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) vs. Matthew Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA)

Lineups

tiger

TBA

Guardian

TBA

What's the key to Game 5 for the Tigers?

Jesse Rogers: Just don't make mistakes and let Tarik Skubal do his thing. The Tigers will likely get some traffic on the bases against Matthew Boyd — perhaps hitting a few small balls will be useful — but not hitting yourself will be as important as anything else in a hostile environment at Progressive Field. That means he doesn't get into outs or make Skubal get four or five outs in an inning. As soon as Skubal comes out of the game – If He comes out – then it's up to manager AJ Hinch to take advantage of the right matchups. He did it for most of the series.

David Schoenfield: That's essentially my opinion too. I feel like the Tigers need to make a few early runs against Boyd before getting into the main body of the Cleveland bullpen – Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase. Especially knowing that Guardians manager Stephen Vogt's plan calls for Clase to pitch maybe two innings. (Yes, the Tigers caught him in two of his appearances, but I wouldn't bet on that happening a third time.)

The only problem for Detroit here is: Where are these runs going to come from? Kerry Carpenter wouldn't have started against a left-handed hitter anyway, and now his status is unclear after he injured his hamstring in Game 4. Riley Greene? Colt Keith? Parker Meadows? All three are left-handed hitters who don't do much against left-handed pitchers. That means guys like Andy Ibanez and Justyn-Henry Malloy, not to be confused with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, need to step up.

What's the key to Game 5 for the Guardians?

Rogers: They have two options: They can hold off Skubal for a run or two and hope their great bullpen can keep Detroit off the field after Boyd gives them a few innings, or they can do what they did in Game 2 – outlast Skubal and … Then Score. That's the formula. Easier said than done. Here's the bottom line: The way Skubal is pitching, if Boyd or anyone else has a bad performance, Cleveland won't have a chance. So it's really the Guardians' only way to stay around. Jose Ramirez building on his last game would help a lot.

Schönfield: If possible, force Skubal to increase his pitch count and get him out as quickly as possible. Unfortunately for the Guardians, it is his pitching efficiency that has made Skubal the best starter in the majors this season. Even in his two playoff starts, he only threw 88 and 92 pitches, respectively, and still went six and seven innings. He only topped the 100-pitch mark four times during the regular season. If the Guardians can get him to that point in five innings instead of seven, they have a chance. Yes, Detroit's bullpen was largely out of commission for two months, but we finally saw it come together in Game 4 when it gave up four runs, and it feels like Cleveland could do some damage there again. And yes, if Jose Ramirez does Jose Ramirez things, that would indeed help a lot.

Which team will face the Yankees in the ALCS?

Rogers: I'm not betting against the zone Skubal is currently in. If he showed any cracks last game or early in the postseason, I might choose Clevleand. The Guardians have already bucked a franchise trend by averting elimination – they had lost their previous 11 attempts before Game 4 – but they won't do it again. But it will will be a close game. It would be shocking if that weren't the case.

Schönfield: I'm going with the Guardians with a 2-1 win. Maybe they can make a run against Skubal. Maybe they score a few runs late against the Detroit bullpen. Either way, I think Cleveland's bullpen – the best in the majors all season – comes up big early in the season and the Guardians pull out a low-scoring win. How about a walk-off from Ramirez to win it?

Live updates

Tune in at game time for live updates and analysis on Game 5.