Models are slowly coming a little closer together regarding the tropical weather threat for the Gulf of Mexico: The Alabama Weather Blog

The latest model run from the European ensemble members is complete and there is a 60 percent chance that a tropical storm will develop over the Gulf of Mexico. The key questions are: where will it move? How strong will it be? Will it affect central Alabama? Well, I can't give you any completely correct answers as we are still waiting for the system to actually form a central low pressure area and move into a more favorable atmosphere. Hopefully all of these model images give you some form of general direction of the system. This is why the direction and/or strength of tropical systems are so difficult to predict. They currently have no location to start their projections from and without that, the models cannot provide a nearly perfect forecast unless it was a lucky break. Here is what I have.

Here is the latest information from the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook on this potential tropical threat…

Northwest Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad low pressure system is likely to form over the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent parts of Central America early to mid-next week. After that, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system slowly moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico through late next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over parts of Central America over the next few days.
* Probability of occurrence within 48 hours… low… close to 0 percent.
* Formation probability within 7 days: medium: 60 percent.

So the NHC has seen no reason at this time to change its forecast from today's post. But let me tell you something: The models have shown some big changes that may put Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches on alert and ready for rough weather that may be heading their way. Here's what the models are showing us this afternoon…

This is a hurricane that would cause concern for Alabama beaches, as the European model has the center of a weak Category 1 hurricane heading toward the coast right along the Alabama-Florida border in the early hours of Saturday, 9/28, possibly over Pensacola. The center will move through western parts of Alabama before turning left and moving into northeast Mississippi around midnight. Severe weather is possible across the eastern two-thirds of the state, along with gusty to strong winds and torrential tropical rain. The weather will gradually improve on Sunday, 9/29.

The latest European model, calculated using artificial intelligence, paints a different picture: a Category 1 hurricane is expected to make landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida at daybreak on Saturday, 9/28, before making a major change of direction to the northwest, with the center moving through the northeast corner of Alabama. Much of the state will be on the drier and less active side of the system; however, rain and gusty winds are possible throughout the day on Saturday. The good news is that severe weather is unlikely since we will be west of the center.

The latest GFS model run now shows the system making landfall a little more to the west than this morning, but it is still moving across the Florida Panhandle, with the center making landfall around Panama City Beach in the early morning hours on Friday, 9/27. The center would move across the southeastern corner of Alabama, with the strongest winds affecting locations between Troy and Dothan. The rest of the state will likely see rain and gusty winds, but there will be no severe weather and rainfall will not be as heavy.

The worst case scenario would be if the Canadian model were to hold true, which would have the center of a Category 1 hurricane moving directly up Mobile Bay and making landfall just outside Mobile as early as late Thursday afternoon, 9/26. Gusty to strong winds are possible across Alabama from south to north for the remainder of Thursday and into the early hours of Friday, with severe weather threats across much of the region. There would be heavy rain and flooding along Alabama's Gulf Coast and Mobile Bay, including the threat of storm surge. Power outages would be likely in some locations with weaker infrastructure, and storm damage from strong winds and a few tornadoes would also be possible.

And finally, the Icon model run, which I don't use yet but is very helpful in forecasting. This latest run has the center of either a strong tropical storm or a weak Category 1 hurricane making landfall on the Louisiana coast south of Houma, LA in the early morning hours of Saturday, 9/28. It will turn northeast and move into southwestern Alabama, bringing a lot of rain and wind before changing direction again and moving northward through western Alabama for the rest of the day. This would also mean that we should expect severe weather and power outages to be primarily over the eastern two-thirds of the state.

Here are the latest impressions from NWS Birmingham on the weather in central Alabama for the second half of the upcoming work week…

Not many changes are needed this afternoon as the ridges will be over the area at least through Monday. Rain chances are low again in the Northwest by Tuesday afternoon, but most areas are expected to remain dry through Wednesday. Much uncertainty remains for the rest of the week and into the weekend. For now, the forecast will mostly remain the same until there is more consistency regarding a possible disturbance in the Gulf and a closed low/trough in the southern Plains.

Of course, we are still far too far from making a forecast as this system has not yet formed. Once the system is sufficiently organized to develop a central low pressure system, the models will be able to produce much better forecasts than what we are currently seeing. The most important thing for us is to stay informed and prepare well before the system develops. If it doesn't come that way, you're prepared for the next one. If it does come that way, you're prepared.

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