Nevada analyst says Kamala Harris wins swing state in final forecast

Nevada political analyst and columnist Jon Ralston predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly win the swing state on Tuesday thanks to independent voters.

In a blog post on Monday, Ralston, the editor of The Nevada Independent Known for his predictions, he expects Harris to beat former President Donald Trump 48.5 percent to 48.2 percent, with 3.3 percent of the total vote going to other candidates.

Ralston wrote in his prediction that “the key to this election has always been which way voters break outside of the major parties because they have become the plurality in the state.”

“They will make up about 30 percent of the electorate, and if they move sufficiently toward Harris, she will win Nevada,” Ralston wrote, adding, “I think they will.”

Ralston acknowledged in his prediction that Republican voters turned out in unprecedented numbers in early voting in Nevada. According to the Nevada Secretary of State's Office, more than 37,000 more Republicans showed up than Democrats for the second week of early voting in the state, which took place between Oct. 26 and Nov. 1.

But as Ralston wrote, there are “many bipartisans who are closet Democrats and have been intentionally registered as bipartisans by Democratic-aligned groups.”

“The machine knows who they are and will make them vote,” he added. “It will be just enough to overcome the Republican leadership — along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes this issue will also generate.”

According to 538, Nevada is considered a tie between Harris and Trump as of Monday, with the former president leading by just 0.3 points on average in national polls. Trump lost Nevada in both 2016 and 2020, with President Joe Biden winning the state and its 6 electoral votes by 2.4 points over Trump four years ago.

According to RealClearPolling tracking, Trump is up by an average of 1 point in Nevada. However, the swing state is viewed as a “misfortune” in the RCP’s election forecast.

In a survey published on Sunday by The New York Times and Siena College, which 538 ranks as the most accurate pollster of the 2024 election, Harris was up 3 points in Nevada, leading Trump 49 percent to 46 percent among 1,010 likely voters.

The same results found that Harris had a 22 percent lead among likely female voters in the state (59 percent to 37 percent), while Trump was ahead among male voters (55 percent to 39 percent). More than half (51 percent) of likely Nevada voters surveyed by the poll Just said they plan to endorse Harris on Tuesday. By comparison, 43 percent of independents in the state plan to support Trump.

In the Emerson College final survey and The hill According to the poll released Monday, Harris and Trump were tied at 48 percent each, based on responses from 840 likely voters in Nevada. However, that poll found Trump leading among independents — while 35 percent of unregistered voters said they would support Harris, 38.7 percent said they plan to vote for the former president.

Newsweek emailed the Harris and Trump campaigns on Monday seeking comment.

Update 4/24/11, 6:08 p.m. ET: This story has been updated with additional information and background.