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New Economist/YouGov presidential poll: Harris narrowly ahead

New Economist/YouGov presidential poll: Harris narrowly ahead

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Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by more than a percentage point in a new Economist/YouGov poll Wednesday, in another sign of a close race.

The poll of 1,446 registered voters found that 47% of registered voters either planned to vote for Harris or had already voted for her, while 46% said they supported Trump. Due to rounding, the gap is actually closer to two percentage points, the survey says. Harris' lead among registered voters is within the poll's margin of error (±3.4 percentage points).

The poll was conducted October 26-29 and is the last scheduled Economist/YouGov poll before the election.

“For a large share of voters, the election is over: 40% say they have already voted by mail, absentee ballot or in person at a polling station — slightly higher than the 37% of registered voters who say they will cast their ballot .” at the polls on election day,” the results say. The poll also shows that those who plan to vote in person prefer Trump, while those who vote by mail prefer Harris.

What you should consider when taking surveys

A survey's margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

If a candidate's lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump's performance.

National polls typically indicate candidates' candidacy for the popular vote, but the election will likely be decided by seven swing states because of the Electoral College system. A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of swing states also suggests the candidates are in a tied race.

Kinsey Crowley is a featured news reporter at USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected] and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.

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