NFL picks, props and odds for Week 9 Monday Night Football Bucs-Chiefs

The betting favorites and home teams delivered a strong win in Week 9 with a 13-1 lead and 10-4 against the spread (ATS) heading into the Monday Night Football feature on November 4th. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:4) are the winners The biggest underdog of the week took on the two-time Super Bowl defending champion Kansas City Chief (7:0), who are still the only undefeated NFL team.

The NFL rankings show the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers and Texans leading the AFC divisions, while the Ravens, Chargers and Broncos are the other teams with winning records and current Wild Card teams when the playoffs begin this week before the halftime mark regular season begin.

Monday Night Football Odds

Professional football Opportunities from FanDuel Sportsbook and top online sportsbooks are updated regularly and are subject to change, including props and live betting.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5), over/under 45.5 points

Other leading online sportsbooks have the Chiefs as -9-point favorites.

Here's how to watch

• Buccaneers-Chiefs: ABC and ESPN 8:20 p.m. ET and streaming live on ESPN+

The NFL favorites had another strong week for bettors in terms of odds, spread and moneyline. Bob Stoll by Dr. Bob Sports offers additional matchups and advance stats to support a double-digit victory for the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

• Kansas City's offense has a league-high rush success rate of 49%, and its ground game provides a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay's defense, which is giving up 5.2 yards per rush (30th).
• Patrick Mahomes is protected by Buccaneers interior defender Vita Vea, who is shut down by C Creed Humphrey, who leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. Tampa Bay edge rusher Yaya Diaby has 31 pressures (10th) but is limited by right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who ranks 17th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Buccaneers' defense is giving up a league-high 0.71 EPA/Target to opposing tight ends, and they will have to contend with TE Travis Kelce, whose success rate ranks second at 65%.
• Tampa Bay's offense is missing wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who rank third and 16th in success rate, respectively. WR Jalen McMillan led Buccaneers wide receivers with 7 targets last week, but is shut out by Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie, who is allowing 0.68 yards per coverage snap (10th).
• Without his WRs, Baker Mayfield won't be able to rely on his ground game as Kansas City's defense is allowing a league-low 3.0 yards per rush on running back carries this season.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 11.7 points, with a predicted point total of 43.5 points, and Kansas City is projected to be 80-35-1 ATS on Monday night. The Chiefs tend to play better even after a point loss (9-1 ATS most recently, including 3-0 ATS this season) than after a good performance.

Buccaneers Chiefs player props and tips

• TB QB Baker Mayfield Passing Yards: Over/Under 236.5, Rush 16.5
• KC QB Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards: O/U 247.5, Rush 18.5
• TB RB Bucky Irving Rushing Yards: O/U 33.5, Reception 15.5
• TB RB Rachaad White Rushing Yards: O/U 28.5, Reception 25.5
• KC RB Kareem Hunt Rushing Yards: O/U 62.5
• TB TE Cade Otten receiving yards: O/U 53.5
• KC TE Travis Kelce receiving yards: O/U 61.5
• KC WR DeAndre Hopkins receiving yards: O/U 44.5
• KC WR Xavier Worthy receiving yards: O/U 36.5
• KC TE Noah Gray receiving yards: O/U 23.5

Top online sportsbooks report that Bucs TE Cade Otten is the most-bet player Over its receiving yards and receptions (4.5). Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt is the most popular running back of all time Over his rushing yards and attempts (16.5). The most popular bet is Chiefs TE Travis Kelce score a touchdownand the matchup stats from Dr. Bob Sports suggests Kelce could rack up 61.5 receiving yards and/or 5.5 receiving yards.

The player prop picks featured on these NFL preview pages at Forbes have produced big points and money for both receivers in Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7 and last Monday night in Week 8. Well, at another receiving ship sailing via its receiving yards. I won't back a player, but more and more bettors are betting that Bucs TE Cade Otten will have a big game along with Chiefs TE Travis Kelce.

Additional matchup and statistical support from Pro Football Focus indicates that Tampa Bay's passing attack ranked in the top eight in EPA per dropback in Week 6, but has since fallen to 15th due to top receiver Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were both injured and missed Monday's game against the Chiefs. The Bucaneers' running backs were a key part of the passing game, combining for 54 receptions, 491 receiving yards and 21 receiving conversions, all ranked No. 1 among running back groups. But the Chiefs defense is stingy in coverage against RBs, ranking third with a 32% success rate when targeting running backs.

The Buc defense ranks second in the NFL with a 48% blitz rate and producing 14 sacks (No. 2). Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is one of three qualified quarterbacks who have yet to make a single big throw against the Lightning this season.

NFL Conference Odds

The Chiefs (+195) are the current favorite to win the AFC and advance to Super Bowl LIX on February 9, 2025 in New Orleans. The Ravens (+300) and division leaders Bills (+400), Texans (+1000) and Steelers (+1600) are the AFC's top contenders. Despite a record of 4:5, the Bengals (+1900) receive market support and the Chargers (+2000) follow with a record of 5:3.

The Buccaneers (+4600) are currently far from winning the conference as they chase other NFC teams, including NFC South leader Atlanta Falcons (6-3). The NFC wild card teams would be the Eagles (6-2), Vikings (6-2) and Packers (6-3) if the playoffs began near the halfway point of the season.

The favorites to win the NFC are currently the 7-1 division-leading Lions (+240), Eagles (+600), Vikings (+850) and the division-leading Falcons and Hail, Mary Both commanders +1000, with Washington trying to climb from last place a season ago to NFC East champions. The San Francisco 49ers (+450) are still a top contender despite a 4-4 record, but are only half a game behind the Arizona Cardinals (5-4) in the NFC West, with the Cardinals (+2600) received little support in the conference futures market.

More sports betting news, stats, player props and information to bet on as the NFL attracts more viewing and betting action, with player props providing additional engagement, entertainment and interest.

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